I've posted an outlook on 2008 as a "CAT Scan" for the Opus Research's Conversational Access Technology program. It's called "Get Ready for Vox Ex Machina" as we all look for that unexpected factor that will meld voice processing, mobility, advertising support and open networks/devices into viable service offerings.
Meanwhile, Greg has published his expectations for 2008 at Screenwerk. You will note that we have decidedly different views (not to mention writing styles), but expect the year to bring more multimedia mobile services thanks to the expansion of broadband wireless and more cooperation up-and-down the solutions stack.
Happy New Year!
By agreeing to by subscriber data specialist Apertio for $205 million, Nokia/Siemens highlights the importance of real-time access to a flexible database of subscriber data to telephone carriers introduce and support services that cross customary boundaries between fixed line and mobile communications. Red Herring considers the price to be a hefty premium over previous assessments of the firm's value.
A Spokesperson for Nokia/Siemens noted that the companies have already worked together for a number of years and that Apertio already has Orange, T-Mobile, Vodafone, and O2 as customers and is testing Apertio's technology with at least three U.S. carriers
The Apple MacBook is number 1 on the best selling computers list on Amazon. While that may come as a surprise to some, the bigger surprise is the fact that the Nokia N800 device is number 3.
The surprising showing on Amazon indicates the demand for larger screen mobile devices and that non-phone mobile Internet devices may have a future.
Earlier this summer I spoke with Yahoo!'s Lee Ott (here's a video interview with Ott [not by me]), director of product marketing for Yahoo! mobile, who indicated that Yahoo! was not going to hastily follow Google's lead a distribute its paid search advertisers into oneSearch results or elsewhere on the mobile Web. It was concentrating on banners and brands for the time being. (AOL and MSN are essentially doing the sample, although AOL has access to JumpTap's mobile index and search advertisers.)
The basic reason Ott offered was that the search marketers themselves weren't ready for mobile and the result would be a generally uneven or poor user experience for the consumers, as click-throughs would often go to pages that weren't intended for mobile distribution. Google, which has moved very aggressively to extend its desktop search franchise into mobile, recently introduced a hosted mobile landing page option for marketers that seeks to remedy the problem that Ott identifies.
Now this article (subscription required) says that Yahoo!'s paid search platform Panama is being readied to support mobile and that mobile and desktop search ads will be "integrated" in Q1 of next year.
Search has emerged as a critical consumer behavior in mobile already and Yahoo! is apparently preparing the way for the paid search monetization of its myraid distribution deals, which now are exclusively focused on display advertising.
Mobile Content Networks, Inc. (MCN) was selected to power music search on the Yahoo! Japan mobile site. This is the first of several vertical search channels to be launched on Yahoo! Japan. The MCN search box and channels are independent of general, "horizontal search" on the Yahoo! Japan site.
MCN competes against JumpTap, Medio, Fast/InfoSpace and, in fact, Yahoo! with carriers. But marketing SVP Stephen Burke stresses that the company can work with any number of players, including those competitors and can integrate and "federate" their content and/or advertising. Think of it as mobile "meta-search."
Burke says MCN does mobile search better and cheaper than anyone. However, unlike other parties, the company doesn't offer a mobile index. Instead MCN taps directly into content sources, which it characterizes as "federated search." Burke said the company abandoned its mobile index approach a few years ago after discovering that it was "too expensive" and couldn't accommodate all the mobile content being developed.
Burke also told me that there will be a number of announcements coming in the next several weeks and months.
This BusinessWeek article speculates about the prospects for the iPhone in Japan, which it characterizes as the world's most advanced mobile market. It details the ways in which the iPhone won't impress Japanese mobile users and how it's already inferior to existing Japanese phones in many respects:
In its current form, the iPhone doesn't work on Japan's advanced third-generation, or 3G, network. Rumors abound that Steve Jobs & Co. will release a new, faster 3G iPhone next year. But analysts are skeptical that will be enough to please consumers in Japan. In its current form, the iPhone's 3.5-inch touchscreen and its access to online applications such as YouTube and Google Maps are about all that set it apart from other handsets in Japan.
In other ways, the device is inferior, and some of its functions won't be all that useful. The iPhone's Wi-Fi networking, for instance, won't get much of a workout since few Japanese retailers are wired for such short-range broadband wireless Internet service. "I don't think it's going to do that well," says Makio Inui, a managing director at UBS in Tokyo. He predicts the iPhone's high price and limited features will be a turnoff for many in Japan.
Yet in the US and many European markets the iPhone does represent a dramatic advance over what has existed in the way of mobile user experiences. In addition to the persistent question about whether the future of mobile will be about the "carrier deck" or "off deck," there's the related question of whether HTML rendering for mobile (Safari, Opera Mini and the forthcoming Mozilla browser) will become increasingly mainstream or whether WAP will predominate.
It's also the case that while some mobile trends in Japan and Asia may come to pass in Europe and the US, one cannot look to these markets as direct "roadmaps" for what will happen in the West. Cultural, economic and competitive variables prevent that from being the case.
This article from MarketWatch offers a survey of an increasing number of smartphone options for US consumers. This Bloomberg piece discusses American's increasing willingness to splurge on the pricer handsets. Indeed, smartphone sales are growing (now representing about 12% of the market). We also know from empirical research that smartphone users access the mobile Internet more and search with greater frequency than non-smartphone users.
The question of how mainstream smartphones will eventually become is an interesting one. It's partly dependent on intangible cultural factors like buzz and fashion, which are helping drive iPhone sales, in addition to function. But perhaps the biggest determinant of smartphone sales is price.
Most smartphones retail for hundreds of dollars, but the Palm Centro is $99 and the LG Rumor is only $50, both with a two-year subscription. If the prices come down, we'll see more smartphones in the market -- with direct implications for mobile Internet adoption.
Related: Apple is expected to announce sales of 5 million units of the iPhone at the forthcoming MacWorld event. That's ahead of schedule. Apparently Xmas demand for the devices remains very strong despite the anticipated announcement of a 3G phone early next year.
This morning Yahoo announced that it had inked another major wireless distribution deal, this time with Latin American wireless services provider America Movil. Yahoo's oneSearch "will be the default mobile search service on America Movil's wireless carriers' portals," which cover 16 countries and roughly 143 million mobile subscribers in Latin America and the Caribbean.
In response to a question I posed about the advertising component of the deal, a Yahoo spokesperson said:
Yahoo will work with each AMX affiliate (regional carrier) to determine the advertising model that best supports their efforts. Yahoo will be integrating their "consumables" content (aka ringtones, wall papers etc), as well as tailoring the mobile search experience to best suit consumers in the individual countries.
These global carrier (and several OEM) relationships either mean Yahoo Go will be preloaded or oneSearch will be on the so-called "carrier deck." That arguably gives Yahoo more direct access to mobile consumers and reach than its main rivals. However, one of the outstanding questions is whether the carrier deck will continue to hold sway over consumers as they become more sophisticated about the mobile Internet.
At least in the U.S., preliminary data from an iCrossing survey conducted earlier this year indicated that consumers were pursuing the major search sites on mobile devices "off deck." However, Yahoo is one of those sites too.
Here's more from Reuters.
People often talk about GPS or cell/WiFi triangulation being the "killer app" for mobile. That's not entirely true but these technologies do potentially improve the user experience and provide for better ad targeting to boot. However, GPS on consumer devices isn't limited to cellphones.
The in-car and personal navigation systems offer it. There's also an interesting device is from a company called Zoombak. The Zoombak device enables you to track a pet or your kids. These technologies are sold to people on the basis of "safety" but there are many interesting applications beyond safety per se. Sprint Family Locator is another such system being sold on the same general basis (using mobile phones).
The eventual ubiqutiy or near-ubiquity of location aware technologies on phones, personal nav devices and other portable techologies will create the infrastructure for "friend finding" and one flavor of mobile social networking. Of course, it could also be used to support nefarious government domestic surveillance and spying. (Merry Xmas.)
The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that the FCC has released the list of bidders for the 700MHz spectrum auction set to begin next month. Beyond the handful of players (AT&T, Verizon, Google, et al.) already reported, the list includes a whopping 266 firms or investors (96 of those applications were actually accepted.)
That number of bidders almost guarantees that the winning bid will exceed the $4.6 billion that Google said it was willing to put up (presumably that's not the ceiling for Google).
The WSJ speculates that the auction might fetch up to $15 billion for the spectrum licenses. Here's more from BusinessWeek.
Related: Forbes reports on a further release and auction of wireless spectrum in the UK.