Opera: State of Mobile Web, June 2010

The latest Opera report is out. The focus of the report this month is on Africa and the World Cup. Opera said it had 59.4 million users of the Opera Mini globally. I'm now using it on my Android Evo at least as much as the native browser (which often tries to send me to the carrier portal annoyingly).

Below are the top sites and handsets for China, the UK and US. The iPhone is now the top handset in both the UK and US, while Nokia continues to dominate in the aggregate.

Compare the data from roughly a year ago, July, 2009. While there is some shuffling among the top sites (e.g, MySpace has gone from #3 to #10 in the US) the data reflect mostly the same top 10 in these countries over the past year. 

iOS v. Android, but What about the Others?

The media keep focusing on the "battle" between iPhone and Android. But the mobile platform and handset market is not winner-take-all. There's room for more than two players to succeed in the US and internationally. This is a key point made by Google itself several times now. 

But how many platforms and smartphone operating systems can the market support exactly?

The following charts reflect OS representation on AdMob's global network. (AdMob does not equal the mobile Internet or mobile handsets more broadly, but there's a directional correspondence between mobile Internet trends and what AdMob shows in its metrics reports.)

If you consider the chart immediately above, what you see is that the "mobile Internet" (on AdMob's network) is dominated by iOS, followed by Android in North America and Western Europe. In other regions Nokia is a major player or dominant. Despite its large, installed base RIM is barely present on this chart.

RIM of course sells more smartphones than anyone in North America. However its mobile Internet usage data and overall user experience lag competitors. BlackBerry 6 seeks to change that.  

There aren't going to be five viable global smartphone platforms. There might be four, but it's more likely three. Those will vary, as the chart above suggests, on a geographic basis, with the two "constants" across regions likely to be Android and the iPhone.

Given the scathing criticque that an InfoWorld writer offered of Windows 7 (after a demo), it's quite possible that Microsoft might not be among the winners:

The bottom line is this: Windows Phone 7 is a pale imitation of the 2007-era iPhone. It's as if Microsoft decided in summer 2007 to copy the iPhone and has shut its developers in a bunker ever since, so they don't realize that several years have passed, that the iPhone has advanced, and that competitors such as Google Android and Palm WebOS have also pushed the needle forward. 

We'll have to wait and see how accurate this very harsh review is later this year when the handsets hit the market. But the Kin debacle is not a good sign for Redmond. 

In the US smartphone market, it's currently a three-way race between iPhone, Android and RIM. In Europe it's likely to be iPhone, Android and Nokia. Other platforms may simply not have the scale and (developer) mindshare to compete. Several developer surveys certainly suggest this as well. 

 Source: Appcelerator (6/10)

inMobi Gains $8 Million, Challenges AdMob

inMobi announced earlier this morning that it had raised $8 million in funding for a total of roughly $15 million.The company began in India in 2007 as "mKhoj." It launched in the US formally last month.

Many people in the industry haven't heard of inMobi yet it's the largest ad network globally other than Google-AdMob. Now inMobil is seeking to take AdMob's place as the leading independent mobile ad network. 

The company says that it has "16.9 billion impressions monthly reaching 179 million consumers in 108 countries." Clients include Reebok, Microsoft, Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Quaker Oats, Yamaha, Barclays, and Yahoo.

Source: inMobi internal traffic data

American employees of the company include former Yahoo VP Anne Frisbie, now head of inMobi North America and James Lamberti, formerly SVP of comScore, now VP of global marketing for the company. I spoke to both yesterday and they stressed to me that inMobi had a technology platform and scalability advantage over the majority of its competitors. They also said that it was best positioned among the independent networks -- inMobi is an ad network working directly with clients rather than a mediator or exchange -- in the Google vs. Apple advertising battle. 

Lamberti said that inMobi would be releasing some very interesting data soon, which caused us to talk about mobile data more broadly. Both Frisbee and Lamberti criticized the quality of the third party mobile data available and the comScore and Nielsen methodologies. They said that GroundTruth probably had the best data in the US market but that it was incomplete.

Frisbee said that once you get out of the US and Europe (to a degree) third party data are not available as a general matter. 

What's impressive is the way that inMobi has scaled globally in a relatively short time frame. Velti and Amobee, using somewhat different models, aspire to the same global scale and reach. 

With Google having bought AdMob that leaves Yahoo and Microsoft as potential buyers of ad networks. However, in addition, the major advertising holding companies, many of which have acquired small mobile agencies, are also potential acquirors of mobile ad networks and exchanges. Then there are the carriers . . . but they're unlikely to play directly in mobile advertising despite their past flirtations.

Nokia Should Fear Android More Than Apple

Apple and Google/Android have become the GM and Ford -- or Toyota and Honda, depending on what part of the world you're in -- of smartphones. Neither has the most unit sales or marketshare but they're both ascendant. Nokia, Microsoft, Palm (HP) and BlackBerry are either static or declining.

Nokia has largely focused on and been unfavorably compared to the iPhone and Apple by critics and investors. "Three years later the company still has no answer for the iPhone" is the refrain often appearing in Bloomberg or Reuters articles about the Finnish company. But in some sense Android may be a much larger threat to Nokia on a global basis. 

Take a look at the following chart showing smartphone marketshare distribution (based on AdMob network data). This doesn't exactly replicate the actual numbers in these countries but shows you generally where things stand.

Nokia/Symbian strongholds are Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe, Latin America to a lesser degree. The places where Nokia is strongest are largely developing countries in other words.

The New York Times ran an article this weekend about Android's strategy for emerging markets. In it there was discussion of a range of new, cheap smartphones for these developing markets:

Smaller Chinese manufacturers, which account for about 10 percent of the global supply of mobile phones, are also adopting Android, seeking to gain market share with lower-priced devices.

Many pin their hopes on MediaTek of Taiwan, which supplies chips for lowcost phones sold in Asia, Africa and South America. The company has joined the Open Handset Alliance, the group that promotes Android, Google said. Devices based on MediaTek may cost carriers as little as $70 each . . . 

Apple can't and won't offer lowcost handsets to the market in these places; it's the premium brand and wants to ensure a uniform experience. Eventually we might see a single lower-cost handset from Apple (something like the iPhone Nano perhaps). But that won't be coming very soon, if ever. 

Google by contrast doesn't have any of those same brand-related concerns. If there are lousy Android handsets in the market it doesn't really diminish Android the OS as a whole. There's room for much more experimentation on Android.

Apple has charmed and captured the "high end" of the market. Google and its OEMs are competing there but can also compete at the lower end with lower price points as the Times article suggests. That's the area where Nokia is dominant. But for how much longer? 

Holy Crap: 1.7 Million iPhones Out the Door

Apple announced this morning that last week's launch of the iPhone 4 generated sales of 1.7 million, higher than the most bullish estimates:

Apple today announced that it has sold over 1.7 million of its iPhone® 4 through Saturday, June 26, just three days after its launch on June 24. The new iPhone 4 features FaceTime, which makes video calling as easy as one tap, and Apple’s new Retina display, the highest resolution display ever built into a phone, resulting in stunning text, images and video. 

According to survey data, however, more than three-fourths of these early sales (at least in the US) are from existing iPhone owners upgrading:

• 77% of the iPhone 4 buyers were upgrading from a previous version vs 56% in 2009
• Only 16% of buyers were switchers to AT&T from another carrier, down from the previous year 

If the device were available from other carriers sales volume might have been 2X this.

There are many surveys that indicate pent up demand in the US for an iPhone from carriers other than AT&T. Accordingly, a new online survey (n=4,000 adults in the US, Canada and UK) about features that iPhone owners would like to see revealed the following: 

Among current and potential future smartphone users, 39% of US respondents indicated they wanted other carrier choices. It's not clear how many of these respondents are current iPhone owners. But it confirms the point I made above that Apple continues to lose sales by remaining faithful to AT&T in the US.

iPhone Mania Goes Global

From Tokyo to San Francisco, there are lines aplenty on iPhone 4 launch day. Here is some of the coverage and video:

• TechCrunch with live video from the line in San Francisco.
• An account of being online in London last night from CNet UK.
• Business Insider has photos from different Apple stores around the world. 

In Paris at the Louvre Apple store:

Credit: SAI

Video from New York and London:

More coverage:

• Bloomberg
• Reuters

HTC Takes Another Step Toward Branding with Software Firm's Acquistion

HTC's slogan is "quietly brilliant." Maybe not so much longer.

The company, which has sought to move from a pure hardware OEM to a more recognized consumer brand, has acquired Abaxia, a French software company that specializes in mobile software development. The company basically has three products: a mobile portal, an idle-screen platform and search capability. 

The firm was founded in 2001. The transaction was valued at $13.2 million (Euro 11 million). The press release is fairly direct about the motivation behind the acquisition:

“HTC is committed to creating the best possible mobile experience for our customers today, tomorrow and into the future,” said Peter Chou, CEO of HTC Corporation.  “The addition of Abaxia deepen and broaden our software development capabilities so that we can innovate at an even faster pace.”

“HTC and Abaxia have worked closely together in the past and our businesses complement each other well,” said Cedric Mangaud, CEO of Abaxia.  “We’re excited to be joining such a significant and emerging mobile brand.”

All of this signals an effort to create a more differentiated (and consistent) user experience across Android and maybe Windows (7) Mobile handsets. This consistent user experience, now in the form of Sense, is a branding and loyalty play. 

Among all the Android OEMs the central challenge is how to differentiate from one other given the common software foundation and the very similar hardware designs. HTC thinks it has found the answer in software -- and it may well be correct. 

HTC and Motorola are vying for Android leadership and HTC may turn out to have the edge in the end. 

Will Microsoft Tag Mainstream 2D Barcodes?

In Japan and elsewhere in Asia 2D barcodes (QR codes) are widely used. They also have momentum in Europe. However, despite a range of efforts, they're largely unknown to mobile users in the US. I suspect that within two or three years, however, they will be mainstream in this country.

The virtue of QR codes is that they can connect "the real world" to dynamic information and the Internet. Magazines, outdoor ads, websites, real-estate signage and other marketing can use barcodes to provide offers, additional information and so on. The can also track performance of those media. It's very similar to how SMS can connect traditional media and marketing with the digital world. However QR codes only require that users capture an image of the code graphic. Yet they also require a software download. 

Consumers with smartphones are getting accustomed to scanning conventional UPC codes in stores for product information. It's just a hop, skip and a jump to QR codes (or some version of them). And Microsoft Tag could become the driver of that mainstream scenario.

Last week Microsoft said it was making the Tag technology available to anyone that wanted to utilize it for free:

Today we’re announcing that Tag is coming out of beta and that basic use of Tags will be free of charge. This means you will be able to generate and use Tags that link to our standard scenarios, such as linking directly to webpages, and use the reader application at no cost. By simply going to Tag.Microsoft.com, you can create Tags and deliver rich interactive experiences on mobile phones, track your Tags, and read about how companies such as Conde Nast and others are using Tag. 

An interesting use case explained in the Microsoft blog post I quote from above describes how Tags are being placed on public monuments in Amsterdam:

Amsterdam became the second world city with a Tag-led tour, with Tags on monuments, museums, restaurants, bars, and other landmarks. The Mall of America, in Minnesota, has announced plans to use Tag to help enhance customer engagement and give retailers an interactive tool to promote their products. 

The challenge to 2D barcode adoption in the US is the lack of standardization; there's no single universal code in use and not enough installed users. It's a bit of the old "chicken and egg problem." Microsoft hopes to popularize Tags and overcome that problem by making them free, as well as the consumer software necessary to read them. 

Facebook is also potentially going to introduce QR codes (although the use cases aren't yet clear). But if any site has the capacity to educate users about a technology it's problem them. 

Just Dial: Another Attempt at Free DA

The free directory assistance business seems very compelling -- on paper. Almost 80% of the mobile market in the US doesn't have a smartphone. Directory assistance (411) costs $1.75 or more per call. Yet the market has failed to materialize despite repeated efforts by various companies, including Google and Microsoft.

Now a VC-backed, Indian company is trying it again with the US launch of 1-880-JustDial:

1-800-Justdial announced today the launch of its free, personalized directory assistance and category search services in the United States. Consumers can now dial 1-800-Justdial (1-800-587-8342) from anywhere in the country to obtain business listings and conduct category searches.

Justdial operators are available 24 hours a day and always provide one ring pickup service, enabling users to speak to a live person and obtain fast local search results or recommendations for nearby restaurants, movies, events, florists, plumbers, dentists, car rentals, or almost any other product or service under the sun.

Justdial offers more than simple local business search, making it quick and easy for people at home, at work, or on-the-go to receive information like listings and local recommendations, or even nearby hotels in a certain price range. Callers simply dial 1-800-Justdial (1-800-587-8342), reach a live operator that picks up within one ring and state what listing or category of product or service they are looking for by neighborhood, zip code or even intersection. Justdial sends callers relevant listings via e-mail or text message and also connects callers to the listing of their choice, all free of charge. Users can register their phone number and address for maximum speed and personalization when using Justdial, enabling the operator to recognize the user and provide recommendations and listings near their home, work, or any other registered address or location.

The service promises real people (probably Indian agents using the Internet) and flexible search parameters. We haven't tested the service yet so can't confirm or contradict any of the company's claims. Other services that offer "human-powered search" on mobile devices include kgb and ChaCha (although more and more queries are machine answered) -- and then there are myriad Q&A services such as Aardvark (Google) or Quora.

Just Dial said that it has proved the model in India, answering more than 70 million calls in 2009. 

A service like this behind a traditional 411 number would have a shot and customer loyalty and repeat usage. However I'm very skeptical that the service will break out and become a mainstream success. Jingle Networks' 1-800-Free-411 has been around for years and not been able to grow beyond a certain point.

There are two trends that conspire against these services:

• The rise of smartphones (now about 23% or 24% of handsets in the US)
• The inertia around traditional 411

New Facebook Mobile Site Will Cement Dominance

Facebook already has 100 million active daily mobile users. With the introduction of a new, faster and free mobile site it will likely double that number in six months. Here are the details on the new 0.Facebook.com:

Collaborating with operators from around the world, we developed this new mobile site with two main attributes:

• It's fast: 0.facebook.com includes all the key features of our standard mobile site m.facebook.com. Users can update their status, view their News Feed, like or comment on posts, send and reply to messages, or write on their friends' Wall just as they do on Facebook.com. Rather than making photos viewable on 0.facebook.com, we put the photos one click away so they don't slow down the experience. You can still view any photos on Facebook if you want but your regular data fees will apply.




• It's free: Thanks to the help of mobile operators we collaborated with, people can access 0.facebook.com without any data charges. Using 0.facebook.com is completely free. People will only pay for data charges when they view photos or when they leave 0.facebook.com to browse other mobile sites. When they click to view a photo or browse another mobile site a notification page will appear to confirm that they will be charged if they want to leave 0.facebook.com

I've argued that it's only a matter of time before Facebook becomes a mobile ad network. When the company introduces location, together with all the data being collected via the distribution of Like buttons there will be many possibilities associated with mobile marketing and advertising. There's also a fairly massive coupons/deals opportunity for Facebook in mobile (as well as on the PC).

One way to think of Foursquare right now is as a mobile loyalty platform. The Like buttons and fan pages also make that a possibility for Facebook as well. 

IDC: RIM Bounces Moto from Top 5 OEMs

IDC has released mobile handset estimates for Q1, saying that the market is rebounding from last year with almost 22% growth. Smartphones lead the way:

Growing demand for smartphones also helped Research In Motion (RIM) move into the top 5 vendor rankings for the first time. RIM, which replaced Motorola in the top 5, tied Sony Ericsson for the number 4 position in IDC's 1Q10 vendor rankings. RIM shipped 10.6 million units in the first quarter while Motorola, which had been a top 5 vendor since the inception of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker in 2004, shipped 8.5 million units. Motorola, the number 2 overall vendor in 2004, registered a fifth place finish last year by virtue of its overall strength in the lower-growth traditional mobile phone category. Motorola has steadily lost share since 2004 when the market started its shift toward higher-end feature phones and smartphones. The ongoing shift has given rise to converged mobile device vendors such as RIM and Apple.

 Here's the global Q1 handset OEM hierarchy according to IDC (unfortunately there are no smartphone figures here):

As mentioned Motorola was bounded from the top 5 by RIM.

Meeker: Mobile Will Dominate by 2014

When I first saw this GigaOM post about Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker's mobile data I thought it was simply a rehash of the Q4 discussion she put out about the mobile Internet. But it's apparently based on some updated projections in a new "Internet Trends" slide presentation.

Below is the "money slide," showing that the global crossover point for the PC and mobile Internet is 2014 in the firm's estimation. In other words, when the two switch places -- when more people (on a global basis) will access the Internet via mobile devices than on PCs. 

Given that in some developing countries this is already the case, it's quite a safe prediction to make. In the US or EU the crossover is unlikely to happen quite as soon, though it likely will happen at some point in the next decade and maybe earlier rather than later.

Right now companies like Google say that mobile devices complement and don't cannibalize desktop PC usage: night and weekends vs. during the day. In addition the iPad has emerged as something of a "weekend" device, at least at this early stage. (I use mine daily.) It might be more accurate to say it's something of a "lesiure" device, at least more so than smartphones and PCs. 

We agree however with Meeker's conclusion that mobile devices will be primary and PC devices will become secondary over the next decade. And, as faster networks kick in, that will only accelerate the trend. 

How Long Before FB Is a Mobile Ad Network?

There's a nice summary (and video) of Facebook VP Chamath Palihapitiya's speech at the Mobile World Congress (via TechCrunch) in which he discusses Facebook mobile growth and engagement and makes a pitch to work with carriers. Facebook says it already has relationships with 200 carriers globally (compare to Yahoo, which says it works with roughly 80 but with the potential reach of 800 million).

Here are some quick facts from the talk:

• 100 million active (daily) mobile users
• 200 million (50%) of Facebook's users have used or accessed it on mobile devices
• Mobile Facebook users are twice as engaged as PC users

 Palihapitiya pitched carriers on the idea that Facebook would help them grow data revenues. 

Facebook's mobile usage and growth are nothing short of amazing. But let's talk about what may be coming sooner rather than later: Facebook as a mobile ad network and one that offers location (and potentially demographics) as part of that proposition. 

There are currently no ads on Facebook's apps, mobile websites or SMS. I would almost bet my life that's going to change in the near-to-medium term. Facebook will be clever and careful about integrating advertising into mobile, mindful of the potential to alienate mobile users. However the mobile ad opportunity may be at least as big for Facebook as it is on the PC. 

Facebook is about to make $1 billion in ads on the PC; however neither I nor anyone I know pays attention to and/or clicks on them. However I do hear from marketers anecdotally that Facebook ad targeting does work. But offers and mobile advertising from SMBs and brands tied to location is a potentially huge opportunity for the company. 

I think it's just a matter of time before we see Facebook start to roll out an offering. And, on arrival, the company would be as large or larger than any existing mobile ad network. 

IDC Contradicts Nokia's Smartphone Claims

IDC has released its smartphone numbers and marketshare data for Q4 and FY 2009. After last week's discussion about whether Android had "tarnished" or slowed Apple's iPhone, these IDC numbers show strength for the Apple handset (growth outpaces competitors). Nokia remains number one followed by RIM and then Apple.

Here's what Nokia said about its own estimated marketshare in its most recent earnings release:

• Nokia estimated mobile device market share of 39% in Q4 2009, up from an estimated 37% in Q4 2008 and 38% in Q3 2009. The full year 2009 estimated market share was 38%, down from 39% in 2008.
• Nokia grew its converged device market share to an estimated 40%, from an estimated 35% in Q3 2009.

IDC contradicts that assertion with its own data and estimates, saying that the device maker's smartphone share is 38.9%, down from 40% a year ago. Here they are:

The smartest thing that Nokia can do in the near term to restore growth is to cut prices, which it is doing. It has also made its Navteq-supported mapping and navigation software free, prompting a huge number of downloads (one per second) since the announcement.

Google Postpones China Android Launch

According to the Associated Press Google is holding off its formal launch of Android in China:

"It is postponed," Google Inc. spokeswoman Marsha Wang said. She said a launch ceremony planned for Wednesday was canceled but declined to give a reason for the decision or to say when the launch might be rescheduled.

I had thought incorrectly that there were already Android handsets in the market, the world's largest with an estimated 700 million mobile phone subscribers. (Dell's showed/demo'd its Mini 3i handset). When Google announced its bold new policy to no longer comply with Chinese government censorship, we asked how that would affect Android in China.

While Android and Google's search and services can be uncoupled, that hasn't happened on any Android handsets to date. Carriers China Mobile and China Telecom are part of the Open Handset Alliance that supports Android. And HTC had formally announced it intended to introduce two Android handsets into the market this year. Samsung and Motorola are also planning China Android launches. This "standoff" between Google and China is quite significant for Android's future there, as well as the fortunes of all these OEMs banking on the operating system.

Assuming no settlement between Google and China, this means that HTC, Dell and others will need to "strip out" Google search and other services from the Android OS (part of their appeal) in order to continue to operate in the market. Absent such a move it might mean that Android wouldn't enter China (except illegally). But a Google-less Android diminishes the handset/OS somewhat for users -- and certainly for Google.  

The iPhone (with Google search) current is in China. The potential withdrawal of Google from China won't necessarily impact the iPhone, which can or could substitute other search and services on the device. 

Will Google Turn Away from 700 Million Users?

Google has said that its infrastructure was hacked in an apparent effort to get at Chinese dissidents' GMail accounts. The implication is that the Chinese government was behind the attacks. The company has taken a laudable and very strong stand and said it will no longer comply with Chinese government censorship. It also said that if it cannot operate in an uncensored way going forward it may exit the market entirely. 

According to the Google blog post:

These attacks and the surveillance they have uncovered--combined with the attempts over the past year to further limit free speech on the web--have led us to conclude that we should review the feasibility of our business operations in China. We have decided we are no longer willing to continue censoring our results on Google.cn, and so over the next few weeks we will be discussing with the Chinese government the basis on which we could operate an unfiltered search engine within the law, if at all. We recognize that this may well mean having to shut down Google.cn, and potentially our offices in China.

China is the world's largest mobile market with 700 million subscribers, more than twice as large as the US population as a whole. The Internet advertising market in China is less mature than in the US and Europe, but over time it would be worth many billions off dollars. Baidu currently dominates search on PCs with roughly 65% - 80% market share. 

This is a very gutsy move on Google's part. There's no reason to believe the Chinese government will allow Google to operate on an uncensored basis. So that may mean -- if Google is true to its public word here -- that it must say goodbye to the world's largest Internet market. 

Presumably Android handsets would still be available in China (e.g., the Dell Mini 3) but they would likely have to be stripped of Google Search and other services. 

Morgan: Mobile Internet to Be 2X the PC Internet

Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker gave a mobile-centric Web 2.0 conference presentation that everyone was talking about several months ago. From our point of view there wasn't anything particularly new in her remarks but she put everything together into historical context. And the crowd there, which may not have seen mobile as "distruptive," was paying attention.

Now comes hundreds of pages and slides that everyone can download here: 

1. “The Mobile Internet Report Setup” – a 92-slide presentation that excerpts highlights of the key themes from the report.
2. “The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes” – a 659-slide presentation that drills down on thoughts covered in “The Mobile Internet Report.”
3. “The Mobile Internet Report” – a 424 page report which explores 8 major themes in depth and includes the two aforementioned slide presentations + related overview text.

There's a ton of data and projections in these documents. Read them over the holiday or before bedtime. Perhaps the most interesting part (I haven't been through everything) is the historical analysis that talks about previous disruption cycles and predicts winners and losers in the future accordingly. 

The big themes are that the mobile Internet will be "at least" 2X the size of the PC Internet and that the whole thing is "ramping" much faster than the desktop did. The latter point we've made many times in the past. 

We are clearly in a kind of double-transition period: traditional media are contending with the fruits of massive consumer Internet adoption but the transition to mobile is happening simultaneously and perhaps a bit obscured as a result. But just as the Internet is "disruptive" of traditional media, mobile is also potentially disruptive of aspects of the Internet. Google has seen that perhaps better than any of its competitors and moved very aggressively as a result.

Many companies, analyst firms and media outlets tend to focus on ad revenues as a measure of whether a medium has "arrived." For example, many of the articles and even forecasts about mobile ad revenues tend to talk about how small they are relative to traditional Internet advertising. And when, oh when, will it be "the year of mobile"?

Dude this year already was. We're here. 

Whether ad networks and publishers can efficiently and effectively monetize the mobile Internet is not going to matter to consumers -- not going to matter. Consumers will be using the mobile Internet more and more and as a primary access point in an increasing number of situations. It will be preferred in a large number of cases. 

The smartphone is going to become "the remote control for your life," in the way that the iPhone or iPod Touch can literally become a remote control device for TV. People will want to access content that they've researched, saved, collected online (i.e., in the cloud) from the mobile device. But the future is not just about phones; it's about myriad mobile devices and Internet access points in the world against near-ubiquitous connectivity. 

The mobile Internet -- from a consumer perspective -- will get larger and larger. Ad revenues will come but consumers are way ahead. Millennial Media predicted that we'd see 100 million mobile Internet users in the US next year. I think that's nearly a slam dunk prediction. Frequency is another matter of course but it too will go up over time. Voice search on my handset may mean that I do as many or more searches there than on my PC.

I'm sitting on the couch and I want to know the answer to trivia question X. Do I get up and go into the other room? No, I take out the smartphone and speak the query: "Who was the 17th president of the US?" Done. Now back to the movie. 

Advertisers, agencies and publishers ignore the mobile Internet at their own peril.

If you thought that the PC Internet gave people control over which ads they consumed, you ain't seen nothing yet. Less inventory and consumer ambivalence about ads on their handsets means that advertising will really need to turn into "content" or be so viral or targeted that people will be motivated to respond. This despite the fact that mobile response rates are much higher than on the PC.

That's a bit of a paradox, I realize. 

Source: Morgan Stanely research

Baidu Going Mobile to Blunt Google Growth

Chinese search engine Baidu.com is developing a mobile app that will be preloaded on many Chinese handsets in an effort to prevent Google from gaining share as search goes increasingly mobile. According to Computer World:

Mobile phones pre-loaded with the Baidu Palm application should appear on the market soon as the company has already reached deals with handset makers, a Baidu representative said in an e-mail late Friday. The software is the "most important product in Baidu's mobile strategy," the company said in a statement announcing it last week.

Baidu is the third largest search engine by volume in the world, based solely on its dominance of the Chinese market:

According to Opera's most recent State of the Mobile Web report, Google is third and Baidu is first among the top ten sites visited by those using the Opera browser on mobile devices in China:

The iPhone, which had a lackluster debut in China (chiefly because it's so expensive), is mostly a Google search device, as is Android. In particular, if Android devices do well in China that will benefit Google's market share. It will be interesting to see if Chinese Android users still prefer Baidu or simply use the Google box on the handset's homescreen.