Report: GMail to Soon Offer VoIP Calls

We've been waiting for Google to implement its Gizmo5 acquistion and turn Google Voice into a true VoIP solution and Skype competitor. However CNET is reporting that Google may be about to offer direct calls (to phones) through GMail:

Google could be ready to turn Gmail into a communications hub by adding the ability to make phone calls from the Google Chat interface.

CNET has learned that Google is testing a Web-based service within Gmail that will allow users to place phone calls from their in-boxes. It's launched from the Google Chat window on the lower left-hand side of a Gmail page and allows users to place and receive calls from within their contacts through a user interface that strongly resembles the one used in Google Voice.

At some point (apparently pretty soon), whether through GMail or Google Voice, Google will make it possible to place and receive calls directly rather than having to rely on an underlying phone number (landline or wireless). That's the moment when Google becomes a carrier/telco. Right now Google Voice is effectively a call-connection service.

(credit: CNET)

The image above suggests the system might allow free calls to landlines and mobile phones. Quality is always an issue with VoIP but I would imagine this would become an immediately popular service.

It would also allow all kinds of connected non-phone devices to become phones, in the way that Skype does too. 

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Update: Google announced this feature this morning: 

Calls to the U.S. and Canada will be free for at least the rest of the year and calls to other countries will be billed at our very low rates. We worked hard to make these rates really cheap (see comparison table) with calls to the U.K., France, Germany, China, Japan—and many more countries—for as little as $0.02 per minute.

Dialing a phone number works just like a normal phone. Just click “Call phone” at the top of your chat list and dial a number or enter a contact’s name.

Google will also be promoting Google Voice calls via UK-style red telephone kioks at various sites around the country. 

Would a Verizon iPhone Slow Android's Rise?

The answer is yes and no. First Android is available across major carriers and so has diverisified distribution. But there is sufficient empricial reason to believe that some number of would-be Droid buyers would opt for a Verizon iPhone instead.

As many have already reported, a July survey of 1,000 US mobile users from Morpace found that 51% of current Verizon customers would consider buying an iPhone if/when it comes to Verizon (now speculated to be January, 2011).

That's a very significant number considering Verizon has more than 80 million subscribers in the US. The survey also reports that some number of AT&T subscribers would switch to Verizon if the iPhone were available there. 

Previous ChangeWave data showed a somewhat lower percentage of Verizon mobile subscribers with pent-up demand for the iPhone:

 

On the subject of current Android users that are interested in potentially switching to the iPhone, Nielsen previously found that about 30% of Android users were interested in an alternative handset (either iPhone or another type):

• It would provide for access to millions more mobile users for the iPhone and its apps
• It would stop Verizon from funding Droid brand building anti-iPhone bashing media campaigns

The value of the latter should not be underestimated either. Before Verizon there was no "Droid" and Verizon has spent millions promoting the platform as a worthy alternative to AT&T and the iPhone. We'll see if the Verizon iPhone actually happens in January. If it does I suspect it would be a "material" development for the US market. Given Android's momentum (see below), Apple should be interested in getting the iPhone to as many carriers as possible:

As a final note, one interesting question to ask of Android buyers is: what phone are you not buying because you bought an Android handset (iPhone, RIM, WinMo)?  In my case it's the iPhone.

Carrier Get out of My Way

The mobile carrier's "worst fear" was that it would one day be reduced to the same "dumb pipe" status that characterizes its fixed-line kin. But the situation has passed beyond dumb pipe; the carrier is rapidly becoming an obstacle to be avoided or circumvented.

As carriers in the US (e.g., AT&T) move to usage-based pricing, introducing more complexity and uncertainty into the system, and seek in other ways to "nickle and dime" consumers that will become even more true. 

Skype, Vonage, Truphone, Google Voice (though not quite yet) and other VoIP providers hint at a future where carrier voice plans are unnecessary and calls can be made with only a data connection -- the quality isn't quite "there" yet however. In addition, personal hotspots like the one just released by Clear (pictured), the iSpot, or the Clear home + mobile plans similarly promise simplified, ubiquitous connectivity for mutiple devices for less. 

Hypothetically if you lived in a Clear city, such as Seattle, you could pay a single price ($55) for Internet access, as well as access for a range of mobile devices, at home and on the go. That's significantly cheaper than paying for unlimited carrier voice and data, as well as an ISP at home and potentially a dongle for $30 per month for a laptop. Those charges, not counting family plans, could easily run $200 or more on a monthly basis. 

We're also seeing data indicating that argues mobile users are increasingly tapping WiFi networks for faster speeds or to avoid using carrier networks for other reasons. For example, Kineto Wireless recently published data (n=330 US smartphone users) indicating that people were looking to WiFi for better speeds and to save money:

• 90 percent of survey respondents who own smartphones with Wi-Fi capabilities use Wi-Fi weekly.  
• 43 percent of people who own smartphones with Wi-Fi capabilities use the Wi-Fi every day.
• 45 percent of those people use Wi-Fi because it provides easy access to the Internet, and 43 percent use it because it is faster than the cellular network.
• 24 percent say Wi-Fi on their smartphones is annoying because it only works in some locations, reflecting a desire to use Wi-Fi more broadly.
• 30 percent of respondents own a Research in Motion (RIM) smartphone; 27 percent own an Apple iPhone.
• 48 percent use AT&T as their mobile operator; 11 percent are T-Mobile customers. 

What these and other data indicate is that smartphone and mobile device users are seeking out WiFi networks for improved performance and/or to avoid using minutes or incurring data charges. There may come a time in the next five years when people can reduce their overall costs and have broad connectivity for their devices at home and on the go -- all without a traditional mobile carrier relationship. 

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See also: Vonage App Calls Facebook Friends Free

Amobee Consolidates European Relationships, Forms Huge Network

There are a number of giant, global mobile advertising companies or "platforms" emerging. Beyond the big brands, Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, there are Velti, inMobi and Amobee. Of the latter three, Velti and Amobee are more similarly situated, while inMobi is an ad network doing ad sales directly. 

Today Amobee announced that "it has been appointed by Gruner + Jahr Electronic Media Sales (G+J EMS) to represent 75% of premium mobile content in Germany. Amobee will become the exclusive partner in mobile advertising, serving billions of ads impressions per month." 

Amobee explains that Germany is the "largest single-country mobile ad marketplace" in Europe. The company also claims that it can, through its carrier partners and publishers, "reach around 1 in 7 mobile users on the planet every day."

Previously Amobee acquired mobile ad agencey RingRing Media. The company says its ultimate goal is to create "the industry’s largest mobile advertising exchange dedicated to connecting publishers, advertising agencies and brands to premium inventory in real-time, on a global scale."

There are many other mobile ad "exchanges" and ad mediators in the market, including AdMarvel, Smaato, Nexage, Mobclix and others. Over the next year the mobile ad market is ripe for M&A as major players try and build more global scale. US-based mobile ad network Millennial Media has indicated it may try and go public.

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Related: Nexage announces major platform upgrade for optimized mobile ad mediation & optimization.

Will New, More Complicated Dataplans Cost Smartphones the Market Majority?

As I indicated earlier the Nielsen Company estimates that about 25% of the US mobile phone population now consists of smartphones. The company further expects smartphones to cross the 50% threshold by Q3 next year.

Today I was having a conversation with Placecast's Blair Swedeen about the rise of smartphones and he made a simple but profound point that I had not been focused on: the "gating" effect of data plans on further smartphone growth. Even as more people contemplate buying ever-more-powerful $200 smartphones (subsidized) they may be held back by costly and ambiguous data plans. 

There are two competing trends in the US mobile handset market: 1) a movement toward smartphones and their associated dataplans and 2) a simultaneous movement by the budget conscious toward lower-cost prepaid plans.

Simultaneously Verizon and AT&T are moving toward tiered, usage-based pricing to generate more revenues from heavy users and help moderate the strain on their networks by discouraging aggressive data usage. The introduction of usage based pricing adds both uncertainty and complexity to the market and is contrary to consumer interests, though the carriers argue that most people will save money under the new pricing schemes. 

T-Mobile and Sprint have so far not indicated they will follow the pricing changes of the larger carriers. 

According to a consumer survey (n=2,000), conducted at the end of 2009 and published in March of this year, by the New Millennium Research Council "prepaid cell phone subscribers accounted for nearly two thirds (65 percent) of the 4.2 million net subscribers added by U.S. phone carriers in the fourth quarter of 2009."

In other words, pre-paid growth (17%) is outpacing growth of contract-based customers (3%). Additional verbatim findings from the survey include the following: 

• The prepaid segment of the wireless market grew by 17 percent in the 4th quarter of 2009 to 54.4 million subscribers, up from 46.3 million in the same quarter in 2008. By contrast, contract-based cell phone service grew only 3 percent over the same period of time.
  One out of five cell phone subscribers are now using prepaid phones.
• The prepaid segment represents a larger proportion of subscribers in the US than ever before, hitting 20 percent in the 4th quarter of 2009, up from 18 percent at the end of 2008.

The carriers are counting on data-revenue growth to help sustain them as voice revenues decline over time. However the introduction of tiered pricing and the ambivalence about data-network usage that these plans manifest may further slow or limit growth of smartphone and related dataplan adoption.

There are some smartphones available to prepaid customers and eventually more such handsets will migrate "down market." However the newest and "sexiest" handsets will always be used as an incentive to get customers to commit to contracts. Nonetheless it's very possible that more complex pricing and uncertainty over mobile data costs (from usage-based pricing) will dissuade a meaningful number of people from getting the newest sexy smartphone.

Consequently the 50% penetration figure may turn out not to be just another milestone in the inexorable march of smartphones toward market domination. It may turn out to be something of a celiing on consumer-smartphone adoption instead.

Sprint Expands 4G Net, Offers Second Handset

Sprint in the US is introducing its second "4G" handset, the Samsung Epic. It's an Android device, of course, with full slide-out keyboard and a built-in Swype keypad. It also has an HD camcorder.

The phone is reportedly a version of the Samsung Galaxy handset. 

Simultaneously Sprint announced the expansion of its 4G network to more secondary markets, including several in California, Florida, Delaware and Michigan. There are now almost 50 metro markets covered by the Sprint/Clear network, though some of the major markets are still missing (i.e., San Francisco, New York, Boston, LA). 

I've now used the Sprint 4G network several times in the Bay Area, Seattle and Chicago. In my experience on my Android EVO the speed difference from 3G is barely noticeable and the battery drain effect is, by contrast, quite dramatic. 

Carriers Conspire Against Credit Cards to Rule Mobile Payments

The promise of mobile payments and Near Field Communications has been lurking and inchoate in the US for years. There's much greater deployment in Europe and Asia than in the US. However Bloomberg reports that mobile carriers AT&T and Verizon are "conspiring" with several others -- Discovery would be the payment processor -- to outflank Visa and MasterCard and rule the now-inevitable world of mobile payments:

AT&T Inc. and Verizon Wireless, the biggest U.S. mobile carriers, are planning a venture to displace credit and debit cards with smartphones, posing a new threat to Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc., three people with direct knowledge of the plan said.

The partnership, which also includes Deutsche Telekom AG unit T-Mobile USA, may work with Discover Financial Services and Barclays Plc to test a system at stores in Atlanta and three other U.S. cities that would let a consumer pay with the contactless wave of a smartphone, the people said. The carriers have been searching for a chief executive officer.

The trial would be the carriers’ biggest effort to spur mobile payments in the U.S. and supplant more than 1 billion plastic cards in American wallets. Smartphones have encroached on tasks ranging from Web browsing to street navigation and now may help the phone companies compete with San Francisco-based Visa and MasterCard, the world’s biggest payments networks.

One of the key issues in the hypothetical adoption of such carrier-based payment systems is: whom do consumers trust more: their credit card companies or mobile phone carriers? It's a bit of a tossup. Neither are well-loved by consumers. Yet genuine mobile payments competition from mobile carriers might be a great thing and create a better environment for consumers where carriers and credit card issuers boost rewards and loyalty programs as incentives to use their systems. 

It very much remains to be seen whether this still nascent carrier effort can get off the ground. While consumers are used to seeing large credit card bills it's not clear they would be happy with massive bills from their wireless carriers. However this is one area where carriers can re-insert themselves into the consumer experience, as they're increasingly marginalized otherwise by the proliferation of smartphones. 

Sprint Q2: Thank You Android Evo

Sprint enjoyed its first subscriber gains (as opposed to expected losses) in roughly three years. The company announced Q2 revenues of $8.0 billion. According the press release, Sprint gained 111,000 net subscribers driven largely by Android and the EVO in particular. There were also improved churn and increased customer satisfaction:

Sprint gained a total of approximately 111,000 net subscribers in the quarter. Demand for smartphones like HTC EVO(TM) 4G and BlackBerry^(R) Curve(TM) - combined with Sprint's best ever postpaid churn of 1.85 percent - led to positive net postpaid subscriber growth of 136,000 on the CDMA network and 285,000 for the Sprint brand, and best ever year-over-year quarterly net postpaid subscriber loss improvement of 763,000. The company achieved its best year-over-year quarterly improvement in postpaid gross subscriber additions in more than five years. 

Sprint also said that its WiMax 4G network is available "in 43 markets serving approximately 51 million people."

The company now has 48.2 million customers:

This includes 33.2 million postpaid subscribers (26.2 million via the Sprint brand on CDMA, 6.4 million on iDEN, and 517,000 Power Source users who utilize both networks), 11.2 million prepaid subscribers (5.2 million on iDEN and6.0 million onCDMA) and approximately 3.8 million wholesale and affiliate subscribers, all of whom utilize our CDMA network.

Sprint's 4G network will not remain a competitive differentiator or marketing vehicle for long, as T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T all roll out faster networks. With Sprint's position seemingly improving, however, T-Mobile appears to be the clearly weaker of the the two weaker carriers. Yet that could change quickly.

T-Mobile is rumored to be the hypothetical recipient of the iPhone in Q3 (we'll see). If that were in fact the case in fact it would be a huge boost for the number four US carrier. 

Verizon Becoming Synonymous with Android

The allure of the iPhone at AT&T peaked and this past quarter. Verizon signed up more subscribers than its main rival: 665K vs. 496K.

And while talk of a Verizon iPhone continues it appears somewhat less likely than it did just a short time ago. In addition the carrier's Droid campaign is all about bashing the iPhone ("Droid Does" [i.e., the iPhone doesn't]).

This past weekend I was at a mall in Los Angeles and went in to the Verizon store to observe and play with the Droid X (impressive large screen but generally felt "insubstantial"). Verizon is very aggressively associating its brand with Droid handsets and has eclipsed T-mobile USA, which once positioned itself as the Android carrier. Given that history it's ironic that T-Mobile may become the first carrier beyond AT&T to get the iPhone. 

Verizon's focus on and marketing on behalf of Android is bad for RIM/BlackBerry and other handset OEMs. RIM in particular will suffer from the "second class status" it now occupies in the carrier's positioning. While RIM doesn't rely on one carrier -- it's broadly available from all the major carriers -- Verizon is the largest and most important. Bing, which struck a major "default search" deal with Verizon (except on Droids), also suffers by extension.

As an aside, as RIM rolls out BlackBerry OS 6 and more iPhone and Android-like touchscreen handsets (I assume), it risks straying from its "franchise" -- the text-friendly keypad. This is the dilemma for the Waterloo, Ontario-based company. 

I also observed the lonely Palm display in the Verizon store. Unless or until HP adds more handsets or revamps the software (which they've said they're going to do) Palm remains dormant. 

Making the iPhone available to Verizon is the shrewdest thing that Apple could do to blunt Android's rise and competitive challenge. But because of the investment that Verizon has made in "Droid" (and being anti-Apple) if Apple were to make the iPhone available it might be difficult for the carrier to accept the offer. 

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Related: BlackBerry’s Era May Be Ending

Updated US Wireless Carrier Numbers

This week AT&T and Verizon reported Q2 revenues. Verizon Wireless had 1.4 million net wireless customer additions, while AT&T reported 1.6 million net customer gains for the most recent quarter.

Here are the "big four" in the US:

• Verizon: 92.1 million total subscribers
• AT&T: 90.1 million 
• Sprint: 48.1 million (reports Q2 July 28)
  
• T-Mobile: 33.7 million

Total: 264 million (not counting smaller carriers). CTIA says there are 285.6 million total US mobile subsribers.  

The gap between the two leaders and the smaller carriers certainly argues in favor of some sort of combination, which has previously been rumored and even supported in principle by Sprint CEO Dan Hesse.

KIN Going Away for Good, Get One Now

Today is perhaps the final day to buy a KIN One (forget KIN Two). Then they disappear from the market for good, after dismal sales.

I have no doubt that years from now these will be collectors items. I never held or used one so I don't know how well they work.

But the novelty of having one -- a phone that's pretty cool-looking and no longer available -- might be enough to lure some people to buy one on the final day of availability. KIN One is only $29 with a two-year contract.

Such a deal!

iOS v. Android, but What about the Others?

The media keep focusing on the "battle" between iPhone and Android. But the mobile platform and handset market is not winner-take-all. There's room for more than two players to succeed in the US and internationally. This is a key point made by Google itself several times now. 

But how many platforms and smartphone operating systems can the market support exactly?

The following charts reflect OS representation on AdMob's global network. (AdMob does not equal the mobile Internet or mobile handsets more broadly, but there's a directional correspondence between mobile Internet trends and what AdMob shows in its metrics reports.)

If you consider the chart immediately above, what you see is that the "mobile Internet" (on AdMob's network) is dominated by iOS, followed by Android in North America and Western Europe. In other regions Nokia is a major player or dominant. Despite its large, installed base RIM is barely present on this chart.

RIM of course sells more smartphones than anyone in North America. However its mobile Internet usage data and overall user experience lag competitors. BlackBerry 6 seeks to change that.  

There aren't going to be five viable global smartphone platforms. There might be four, but it's more likely three. Those will vary, as the chart above suggests, on a geographic basis, with the two "constants" across regions likely to be Android and the iPhone.

Given the scathing criticque that an InfoWorld writer offered of Windows 7 (after a demo), it's quite possible that Microsoft might not be among the winners:

The bottom line is this: Windows Phone 7 is a pale imitation of the 2007-era iPhone. It's as if Microsoft decided in summer 2007 to copy the iPhone and has shut its developers in a bunker ever since, so they don't realize that several years have passed, that the iPhone has advanced, and that competitors such as Google Android and Palm WebOS have also pushed the needle forward. 

We'll have to wait and see how accurate this very harsh review is later this year when the handsets hit the market. But the Kin debacle is not a good sign for Redmond. 

In the US smartphone market, it's currently a three-way race between iPhone, Android and RIM. In Europe it's likely to be iPhone, Android and Nokia. Other platforms may simply not have the scale and (developer) mindshare to compete. Several developer surveys certainly suggest this as well. 

 Source: Appcelerator (6/10)

Skype Promoting Mobile Usage

I got the following email from Skype this morning trying to encourage me to claim a "Skype to go" number and use Skype on my mobile phone.

The problem is that while there's a financial incentive to use Skype for international calling the quality isn't good enough yet for every day domestic calling over 3G. If that quality improves as 4G networks roll out there could be increasing use of Skype as a primary telco on mobiles.

However Skype can be used quite nicely on the iPad to turn that device into a phone. 

That sort of potential disruption is a reason that most carriers won't offer unlimited data-only plans. 

Carriers 'Pimp the Homescreen,' Struggle for Relevance on Smartphones

The US carriers should simply acknowledge that they've lost the smartphone user; it's game over. Smartphone owners don't want to deal with carrier decks/portals/pre-installed software and other carrier hi-jinx.

Embrace the "dumb pipe scenario." 

When I launch the browser on my EVO I'm often redirected to the Sprint "powerdeck," a portal that offers news, entertainment and other content. I have no interest in this experience because it's so mediocre. If Sprint had actually built a great UI/UX that I could personalize I might well use it.

The carriers are unable to build state-of-the art user experiences. Nor are their vendors it would seem. But unless they're going to make some substantial investments in user experience . . . just give it up. 

Here's another, similar case-in-point: the LA Times technology blog discusses some of the carrier-pre-installed software now showing up on T-Mobile and Verizon Android smartphones: 

Well, customers who bought Motorola's new Droid X smart phone or Samsung's Vibrant, both of which launched Thursday, may feel a tinge of deja vu.

The Droid X comes loaded with several nonstandard applications for Google's Android, most of which cannot be removed.

Among the phone's so-called junkware is a Blockbuster video app and a demo for an Electronic Arts game called Need for Speed: Shift.

These carrier-installed apps and software are likely the result of "pimping" the homescreen to third parties; in other words, pay for placement. It's probably some VP's idea of an incremental revenue stream. But it's not; it's really just an annoying inconvenience that at best most users will ignore or at worst will make them angry.

Again, unless they're willing to make substantial commitments to the user experience and provide choice and personalization options they should just get out of the way. Even then it's doubtful that carrier portals or decks will see much use on smartphones. Feature phones are a different matter. 

Carriers can gain additional revenues, indirectly, from advertising. They can provide network location to publishers and advertisers, with safeguards and caution. They can accordingly facilitate the delivery of ads and offers and take a slice of the money accordingly.

They could also be the consumer's mobile wallet but they'd need to lower fees to third parties and raise the ceiling on amounts that could be charged by users. They're unlikely to fully embrace mobile payments, however, because they don't want to get into the credit card business with its corresponding bad debt. 

Carriers have tried unsuccessfully to sell advertising in the past. To do it well would probably require acquisitions of mobile ad networks or agencies. Overall, however, it's probably better for them to constrain themselves to behind-the-scenes roles providing the infrastructure and facilitating the ecosystem of developers, publishers and advertisers that now deliver the value to smartphone users. 

FCC: 20% of US Landlines Now VoIP

The US telephone market is more diverse and complex today than at any time before. To that point the US FCC recently reported a fairly dramatic piece of data: almost 20% of US residential landlines are now VoIP-based. 

According to the press release associated with the release of the FCC "Local Telephone Competition" report:

• At year-end 2008, there were 141 million traditional switched access lines in service and 21 million interconnected VoIP subscriptions in the United States, or about 162 million wireline retail local telephone service connections in total. Of these, 97 million were residential connections and 65 million were business connections.
• Of the 162 million total connections, 48% were residential switched access lines, 39% were business switched access lines, 12% were residential VoIP subscriptions, and 1% were business VoIP subscriptions.
• Of the 97 million wireline residential connections, 74.5% were ILEC switched access lines, 19.5% were non-ILEC interconnected VoIP subscriptions, 5.8% were non-ILEC switched access lines, and 0.3% were ILEC interconnected VoIP subscriptions.

These data are from 2008 so they're bound to be different now. The VoIP penetration might be as much as 5 points higher today. 

The vast majority of US residential VoIP subscribers (81%) receive VoIP as part of a "broadband bundle." This is primarily cable companies offering discounted packages of Internet, TV and telephone together. This is part of a larger cable strategy to retain subscribers and steal voice revenues from rival telcos. 

Over time more residential calling will move to lower-cost VoIP or wireless plans. However, the move toward tiered pricing could affect consumer behavior accordingly. Today, according to the US CDC, 25% of US households have no landline at all.

Apple's Fidelity to AT&T Now Self-Destructive

According to a Piper Jaffray survey (reported in Fortune), three-fourths of iPhone 4 first day buyers were existing iPhone owners who were upgrading: 

• 77% of the iPhone 4 buyers were upgrading from a previous version vs 56% in 2009
• 16% of buyers were switchers to AT&T from another carrier, down from the previous year
• 28% of iPhone 4 buyers were also iPad owners

Various estimates have put first day sales at between 1 million and 1.5 million iPhone 4 units. This is good news (of a sort) for Apple but not as good for carrier AT&T, which is subsiding all the phones.

Obviously the phone is hugely popular but it isn't winning as many coverts as past iPhones. Most of the would-be switchers have already moved over. And increasingly competitive Android devices make people less likely to switch. 

Yet there's still demand among non-AT&T customers for the iPhone that Apple is failing to capture. Previous surveys have indicated substantial demand for the iPhone, for example, among Verizon customers:

If the data in these charts is representative of the broader US market, they represent millions of iPhone units that Apple is not selling -- and that are going to Android or other handsets -- because of AT&T exclusivity. 

CTIA Spanks San Franciso for Labeling Rule

In a move that can only be described as a bitter reaction to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors' recent decision to require mobile phone retailers to post warnings about radiation levels, CTIA says it will no longer hold conferences in the City by the Bay. 

The wireless trade association issued the following statement:

"(The) Board of Supervisors' action has led us to decide to relocate our show," said CTIA Vice President of Public Affairs John Walls in a statement. "We are disappointed to announce that the 2010 CTIA Enterprise and Applications show in October will be the last one we have in San Francisco for the foreseeable future."

CTIA says the show is responsible for pumping many millions into the SF Bay Area economy. There will be a final show in October in San Fransisco, and then perhaps the show will relocate to Los Angeles or other points unknown.

Regardless of the SF labeling rule, which CTIA fears will scare consumers, there isn't likely to be a decline in mobile phone usage given how entrenched they are in the culture and how people are increasingly dependent on them. Perhaps more likely, CTIA is trying to send a message to other cities not to follow suit. 

Trying to Steal Apple's Thunder Verizon Announces Droid 'X'

The morning after glowing iPhone 4 reviews, Verizon and Google tried to steal back some attention for Android with the announcement of "Droid X." There was a splashy press event in New York. I was not there. Here are the major specs on the new Motorola device:

• 4.3 inch screen
• 1GHz processor
• 3G Mobile HotSpot capabilities
• Adobe Flash Player 10.1

This is essentially Motorola's answer to HTC's Android EVO.

Android boss Andy Rubin said in press materials that “There are 160,000 new Android-powered devices activated daily and Android Market has grown to over 65,000 applications." The new phone runs "Froyo," Android 2.2, which has some impressive capabilities.

According to an associated Google blog post, "there are 60 compatible Android devices, delivered via a global partnership network of 21 OEMs and 59 carriers in 49 countries."

Multiplatform app software platform vendor Appcelerator conducted a survey of 2,733 developers from June 15-17, 2010. It found that developers favor Apple in the near term but are betting on Android in the longer term:

The potential reason behind developers' more favorable view of Android longer term goes to the platform's "flexibility" and "adaptability" to other devices (TV, in car, etc.) and the distaste for Apple's control. The overwhelming majority of respondents (86%) said that Apple had become "too controlling." 

But what's also striking about these findings (top graphic) is the diminished interest in virtually all other smartphone platforms. Just as Nokia prepares to abandon Symbian for MeeGo, the Appcelerator survey shows very little interest among US-based developers. Even BlackBerry, which has greater market share than the iPhone and Android, is seeing declinging interest among developers: 75% of developers thought that it would eventually be eclipsed by Android and the iPhone.