Target to Mainstream Mobile Coupons

Mobile couponing has been something of an exotic and unfamiliar beast to both retailers and consumers until fairly recently. However, now, just like American Idol mainstreamed (if I can use it as verb) text messaging for US users a couple of years ago, Target is potentially going to do the same for mobile couponing.

The company has launched what it calls the "first-ever scannable mobile coupon program." The announcement has been widely covered, but the release explains the mechanics of the program: 

Guests can opt-in to the program on their PC at Target.com/mobile, on their phone at m.target.com or by texting COUPONS to 827438 (TARGET). After opt-in, guests receive a text message with a link to a mobile Web page that contains multiple offers, all accessible through a single barcode. Offers are single use and expire on the date listed.

Issues with the POS and redemption, which have historically plagued mobile couponing (outside SMS), have reportedly been resolved with a technology upgrade that permits the retailer to scan barcodes at the register:

Target's point-of-sale scanning technology makes mobile coupons possible, and Target is the first major retailer with the ability to scan mobile barcodes in all of its stores. 

Retailers are on the vanguard of mobile marketing and finding success in early trials with advanced, as well as integrated, digital marketing approaches. Witness also Placecast's geofencing SMS marketing program with retailers. 

Perhaps no other retailer, save Wal-Mart, has the kind of clout and visiblity to push mobile couponing quickly into the mainstream. Target it must also be said is not a mainstream retailer from a digital marketing perspective. The company has been very systematic and progressive in developing digital strategy, including mobile.

YouTube Launches Ads on Mobile Website

Google announced the launch of display ads on YouTube today in the US and Japanese markets:

[T]oday, we're launching ads on the home, search, and browse pages of the American and Japanese YouTube mobile websites (m.youtube.com from your mobile browser). This is a great way for advertisers to reach YouTube viewers across multiple platforms. In fact, at launch YouTube will immediately provide one of the largest audiences for a mobile ad campaign anywhere on the mobile web. And because YouTube mobile attracts early adopters, the site can deliver to advertisers a coveted demographic of tech savvy trendsetters. 

YouTube has always been part of Google's display advertising story, now extending into mobile. The company has moved to acquire leading mobile ad network AdMob, which has not been finalized. Interestingly, the YouTube iPhone app doesn't feature any ads. And I wonder if Google is trying to avoid running afoul of Apple's somewhat murky policy against doing geotargeted ads against non-geotargeted content (assuming that geotargeting is available).

The Mazda ad on the homepage that you see below appears to be a pure national awareness ad without even a dealer locator. The image below (on the left) is of the mobile Web version of YouTube and (on the right), the iPhone App:

Google reported that traffic to the mobile version of YouTube was way up:

The . . . site traffic grew by over 160% in 2009, and now millions of people all over the world are streaming tens of millions of videos every day on their mobile phones.

Android Growing, 29% Accessing Mobile Internet

Android has seen some impressive growth over the course of the past quarter, according to new numbers out today from comScore. CTIA counts over 270 million mobile subscribers in the US; comScore argues there are 234 million ages 13 and older. Here are the subscriber figures for the four largest US carriers:

• Verizon -- 91.2 million
• AT&T -- 85.1 million
• Sprint -- 48.1 million
• T-Mobile -- 33.8 million
• Others -- 13 million (approx)

There there isn't likely a causal connection, Android's gain is just a little greater than WinMo's loss.

Here are the big data points from a usage standpoint in the chart below:

• 63.5% doing SMS (this number may be low)
• 28.6% using mobile Internet (with some degree of regularity)
• 19.8% downloaded apps  

You can see in these numbers very directly the caparative reach of each of these "platforms."

If we use a compromise figure of 250 million mobile subscribers, then number of mobile Internet users in real terms would be 71 million people in the US. 

Top US handset makers:

Movie Promo Uses Outdoor + Barcodes

One of the things that we've pointed out many times here is that traditional media gain "new life" with the incorporation of mobile (SMS, barcodes). A great case-in-point comes in the form of a promotion for the new horror/sci-fi movie Repo Men (not a remake of the 80s cult classic). The movie poster contains a traditional barcode that users scan for additional content and promotional information:

The barcode campaign, now taking place in 15 U.S. cities, involves outdoor creative for the movie that includes a small barcode in the corner of the posters. Users can scan these codes with an iPhone equipped with reader software from Red Laser, decode them and link to pages of apparent sales brochures for artificial hearts, kidneys, livers, eyes, and so on.

Other codes link to video clips showing a cable shopping network show touting the latest and most expensive artificial organs—"artiforgs," in the world of the movie—or to a guerilla Web site supposedly representing a movement to resist The Union, the finance arm that underwrites these costly organs and then repossesses them when the owners default.

In the absence of this the movie poster might be provocative and build awareness for the film's release. But this approach will create much more "buzz" and will likely boost sales at the box office. The only question is whether the specific mobile approach (smartphone barcode scanning) is aligned with the target audience, which might be younger and more inclined toward SMS. However, you can't do the rich media/content stuff with feature phones. 

Forget about this particular promotion, SMS and/or barcodes should be thoughtfully incorporated into more traditional media campaigns increasingly as a matter almost of routine. Not only does it make these ads dynamic and interactive, but it offers metrics on response rates as well.

Smaato: iPhone CTRs on Ads Decline

When it comes to mobile search and paid-search clicks the iPhone still drives most of the volume. However, ad aggregator and optimizer Smaato says that iPhone and iPod Touch display click-through rates (CTRs) have declined and that Windows Mobile has now pulled ahead. Symbian is the king. 

The data in the chart below represent concentrations in the US and Asian markets. Smaato is looking at "performance" in 35 mobile ad networks covering "more than 3000 registered mobile publishers in February 2010."

An index score of 100 is the average CTR. So in the chart above, Symbian, Android, "featured phones" over-index -- meaning their users click more -- and those below 100 are under-indexing; their users click less. 

Smaato comments on the decline in the iPhone/iPod Touch CTRs:

One of the big surprises is the continuing decline of CTR Index from iPhone and iPodTouch with a rate of 89; it’s the first time Apple devices have dipped below the average Index of 100. In December 2009 the iPhone posted a CTR Index of 119, sliding to 104 in January 2010.

There will be a good deal of unreflective discussion of these findings. It's important to point out as a fundamental matter that clicks as a display metric are inadequate and fail to capture the real influence of dispaly advertising online. There is now a substantial body of evidence that display ads influence purchase behavior despite a lack of clicks. 

So while these data are interesting, they don't necessarily correlate with actual purchase outcomes or brand influence on consumers from mobile display ads. 

AT&T Subs Yahoo! Search on Android BackFlip

AT&T's first Android phone will be the Backflip, made by Motorola. It's basically a CLIQ, with a few tweaks.

The interesting twist is that the carrier is making partner Yahoo! the default search provider on the handset and not Google. This appears to be a first, certainly in the US. There's apparently also discussion that some of the native Google apps (e.g., GMail) could be stripped out as well. 

This type of substitution was certainly contemplated for Android. The thing is it hasn't happened in the market until now. Will others (OEMs, carriers) see this and make a similar move? AT&T and Google are intense rivals over net neutrality. And Google is creeping into AT&T's turf as an ISP with its "dark fiber" broadband "experiment." 

Rivals Argue They Perform Better than AdMob

Two recent studies by Mobclix and SmartReply contend that each network performs better than AdMob. Because the data are self-serving one must receive them with some caution. However here are the results . . . 

Mobclix ran "The Mobclix Challenge" in December to directly compare itself to AdMob, claiming that its platform/network would provide app developers with greater revenue. Mobclix said it "outperformed AdMob by 83%. Overall, Mobclix was able to ensure higher eCPM, significantly more revenue and 100% fill rates for all participating apps."

The company highlighted two case studies that cast Mobclix in an especially favorable light vs. AdMob: 

• Jokes Free earned 135% more ad revenue and received 2.27x higher eCPM via Mobclix in comparison to AdMob. If they had integrated Mobclix exclusively in December, their app could have earned $5K more in revenue.
• Spazzle Free earned 25% more ad revenue and received as much as 175% higher eCPMs using Mobclix. If they had integrated Mobclix exclusively in December, they could have earned $6K more in revenue.

Independently SmartReply, which works with retailers, conducted a study comparing its own SMS network to AdMob's. The company said that in "multiple comparative tests run between in Q4 2009 and January 2010 across the AdMob and SmartReply networks," the results were as follows:

• For every $100 spent in mobile advertising, the SmartReply network delivered 7.7 new customers while AdMob delivered only 4 new customers.
• SmartReply’s ad network delivered a 2.17% click-through rate while AdMob’s delivered only a 0.13% click-through rate.
• To receive 100 responses, SmartReply circulated 65,000 impressions whereas AdMob needed to circulate 5 Million impressions.
• For every 12 Million impressions served by SmartReply, AdMob needed to serve 1 Billion to achieve the same results.

This is a little bit "apples to oranges" because one would expect an opt-in SMS platform to have better success than a pure display network such as AdMob's. However SmartReply contends that it is both more efficient and offers broader potential reach than AdMob (SMS vs. apps/mobile Web). 

Separately Mobclix just acquired analytics provider Hearbeat to broaden what it can offer developers in terms of tracking app performance. This is similar to the recent acquistion of TapMetrics by Millennial Media, to broaden its analytics capabilities. 

How Broad Is Google's Location Patent?

VentureBeat surfaced a patent that Google was awarded last week: "Determining and/or using location information in an ad system." The original application was filed in early 2004. The patent appears to cover using location as a primary factor in determining the relevancy of advertising served.

It's not specific to the PC or mobile and would presumably cover both areas. My non-technical reading of the patent suggests that this covers ranking ads based on the location of the user and/or proximity of the user to the desired object/site/product. 

Here's some of the mind-numbing discussion in the application itself:

Different geolocation information may have different scope, and some geolocation information may contain other geolocation information. Generally, for purposes of determining ad relevancy, a match of more specific geolocation information (e.g., town) may be weighted more heavily than a match of less specific geolocation information (e.g., country). Generally, for purposes of ad scoring, the most specific geolocation price and/or performance information that matches will be used. That is, if an ad has price and performance information for both San Diego and California, if the request geolocation information indicates an end user in San Diego, the San Diego price and performance information will be used. If on the other hand, the request geolocation information indicates an end user in Sacramento, the California price and performance information will be used. If the request geolocation information indicates an end user in Omaha, Nebr., neither will be used.

There are many different ways to score ads. Some examples include (a) using a distance between a presence of the advertiser and the end user, (b) using a local availability of an item sought by the end user, (c) using an advertiser attributes (e.g. a location of the advertiser's closest retail outlet), etc. Ads can be ordered and/or priced using language criteria (e.g., query/display language, information derived about user or advertiser's language such as location of user in Japantown).

Although some examples above used geolocation information as a current location of the user, the geolocation information may be a location that the user is interested in. For example, if a search query includes a zip code, it may be inferred that the user is interested in a location defined by the zip code, or located within in the zip code. If the search query includes a city name, region name, and/or a state name, it may be inferred that the user is interested in a location defined by such a name(s). Thus, for example, a user may be interested in an area which may be the same as, or different from, the current area of the user. The targeting, scoring, content, and/or performance tracking of ads may be affected using a location of interest. 

There are a number of location-oriented patents that have been awarded online for consumer search and in mobile. Companies such as Microsoft, Geomas (patent troll), Local.com and JumpTap, among a couple others, all hold local or local-mobile patents of one sort or another. One day some of these folks will be compelled to duke it out in court to determine whose patents trump the others. 

This one is quite broad however. 

Placecast Launches Geo-SMS 'ShopAlerts'

Placecast was recently featured in a piece in the NY Times about "geo-fencing" and retailer The North Face. The company was using Placecast's system to send SMS alerts and marketing messages to users (already opted-in) who were within a certain proximity to a North Face retail outlet.

Today the company is broadly announcing the availability of this capability, which has been in trials with a number of US retailers:

Placecast's ShopAlerts service is a retailer marketing solution. Retailers leverage the technology to create their own version of the service; then consumers choose the brands they love, and may opt-in through many ways - at the store, online, via text-message, mobile website, or social network (like Facebook). Once ShopAlerts is activated, consumers go about their day and the service automatically alerts them when they are near a location that they are interested in or when the brand is offering sales and specials.

Unlike many new mobile advertising innovations available only as applications on smartphones, ShopAlerts works on any phone, which is a benefit for retailers who wish to reach the 196 million Americans who do not own smartphones but are interested in such shopping deals . . .

Four retailers are on board at launch: SONIC, American Eagle Outfitters, and REI. Here's a video that explains and demonstrates the service: 

This is the "Starbucks coupon" scenario that people have been talking about for years. The difference here is that people opt-in to receive these alerts so they're not mysterious spam. But they are transmitted when you're within a certain distance from a store. As a result they're relevant in at least two ways:

• These alerts represent content (deals/offers) that people are interested in -- they opt-in so response will be much higher
• They're locally relevant because you're within a reasonable distance (that can vary) from a store 

This is location-based marketing but it's not "advertising" in the sense that nobody's bought an ad placement on a network or website. This is the blind spot in most of the mobile ad forecasts out there. SMS and direct marketing services delivered to your phone are often not considered in the major mobile ad forecasts in the market. However this will be a huge area for both retailers and other local businesses as well as consumers.

Placecast conducted a survey among consumers who participated in the ShopAlerts trials and found the following:

• 60% of participants found the location-triggered messages to be cool & innovative
• 79% said it increased their likelihood to visit a store
• 65% made a purchase as a result of a ShopAlerts message
• 73% of participants would definitely or probably use the service in the future

AdMob: iPod Touch Owners Apps 'Super-users'

This month's AdMob mobile metrics report compares downloads and application usage across the various smartphone platforms. The company hightlights app downloads by platform/device, satisfaction levels and other metrics. Much of the data this month comes from a survey taken by users on their device:

Respondents were sourced by responding to mobile ads throughout AdMob's iPhone OS, Android and webOS networks. There was no incentive offered to participate in the survey.

There were 963 total respondents: 318 Android, 244 iPhone, 356 iPod touch and 45 webOS. The survey was run from February 5th - February 16th.

Below are a few of the charts from the report, which can be downloaded here.

Survey respondents by gender and age, by platform: 

The things that are striking in the two graphs above are:

• Concentration of younger users among iPod Touch owners (young and gaming centric)
• The fact that Android is male dominated. This is largely a function of the testosterone infused ad campaign by Verizon for Droid.  

Average and paid downloads on a monthly basis:

The iPod Touch owners are the so-called "super-users" because of the greater number of apps they download. In the second graphic, there are many more paid app downloaders in the iPhone OS camp. This is because iTunes is very easy to use ("frictionless") compared with the other platforms. As an anecdotal case-in-point, I currently have two Android phones and have never downloaded a single paid app. 

There are also some interesting data in the report about non-phone smart devices:

Here's AdMob's discussion of the data represented in the two charts above:

• 16% of iPhone users said they intend to purchase an iPad, compared to 11% of webOS users and only 6% of Android users.
• Approximately the same percentage of Android users were interested in purchasing the Amazon Kindle as were interested in purchasing the iPad.
• iPod touches are popular devices among consumers already using smartphones. 1 in every 4 iPhone users currently owns or intends to purchase an iPod touch in the next six months. More than 1 in every 5 webOS users currently owns or intends to purchase an iPod touch within the next 6 months.
• 91% of iPhone users and 88% of iPod touch users would recommend their device, compared to 84% of Android users and 69% of webOS users. webOS users are 3.4x more likely to not recommend their device relative to iPhone OS users.

This last data point -- webOS users are 3.4x more likely to not recommend their device relative to iPhone OS users -- is really telling (re the Pre/Pixi). I'm a Palm Pre owner and have lived with the phone now almost a year. My dislike for the device has grown over time. I actually like the form factor of the Pixi better; however the Pixi is underpowered compared to the Pre, compromising its appeal.

Palm has been completely overshadowed in the market by the iPhone, RIM and Android. I don't think that Palm is going to be able to come back and will have to sell itself to someone (or come out with new devices that are more competitive, which is harder for the company).

While the Pixi may appeal as a "transitional" device (from feature phones to smartphones) the Pre is now effectively dead. It's simply not going to sell very well anywhere. Palm made some bad choices and strategic mistakes with it. And it's really now too late to correct them. 

Finally, all the data about app downloads again raises the question about the long-term "viability" of apps vs. HTML5 and "Web apps." To the extent that Adobe, Rhomobile, Appcelerator and others develop or refine tools that truly allow developers to "write once" for multiple platforms, then we will see apps survive across a range of smartphone platforms.

Otherwise, we'll continue to see apps written for the iPhone and maybe one or two others. But everything else will be HTML5 otherwise. 

Millennial Acquires Analytics Provider TapMetrics

Yesterday Millennial Media announced it is buying analytics provider TapMetrics. Millennial has itself offered analytics since its inception so I asked CEO Paul Palmieri about the rationale behind the acquisition. He told me late yesterday afternoon that TapMetrics offers "general business analytics" and that it would complement and round out the mobile campaign analytics that the company already offers.

Here's what Millennial will be able now to deliver to clients with the addition of TapMetrics:

• Real-Time, Highly Detailed Analytics
• User Interaction Information
• Feature and Version Adoption
• Device Types
• Crash Reporting
• Buzz Tracker & Reviews
• Competitive Ratings System

Palmieri and I went on to discuss the state of mobile advertising in general and a wide range of related issues. In particular we talked about advertiser demand for mobile, ad exchanges and "mediators" as well as mobile CPMs and whether then were stable or in still in decline.

On the third point he said that he believed mobile CPMs had stabilized after some price competition that saw them decline in Q2 and Q3 of last year. He also made the point however that there are too many consumer impressions chasing not enough advertiser spending and this is a contributing factor as well. In other words, consumers are adopting and using the mobile Internet at rates that are much greater than advertisers, many of whom are still stymied by confusion about what to do in mobile and its apparent fragmentation.

This "consumers lead, advertisers lag" pattern is also present to this day on the PC Internet where time spend with the medium is not commensurate with ad spending. However the patterns of consumer and advertiser adoption of the PC Internet are all accelerated (post iPhone debut) in mobile. Palmieri was ambivalent about mobile ad "mediators" or exchanges. He recognized that they brought some value to publishers and advertisers but raised a version of the premium-remnant argument that exists on the PC side. Palmieri said he wouldn't serve a high value branded campaign against impressions that weren't in his mind worthy of the advertiser. Still he acknowledged that exchanges do in some circumstances benefit publishers by providing more advertiser fill and benefit advertisers by providing some enhanced reach in an easy to buy fashion.

TapMetrics is based in San Francisco. Millennial Media, based in Baltimore, is arguably the largest of the existing independent mobile ad networks and thus, as I suggested to Palmieri yesterday, "on deck" -- in a manner of speaking.

Profile of North Face Local-Mobile Ad Campaign

The New York Times offers a really interesting piece about how the outdoor equipment retailer North Face intends to use proximity based marketing (via SMS) or "geo-fencing" to promote sales and products to consumers within a particular neighborhood area.

According to the story in the Times:

For now, the North Face will send texts about promotions, like a free water bottle with a purchase, and new arrivals, because the company’s gear is heavily seasonal. A text message would say, for example, “TNF: The new spring running apparel has hit the stores! Check it out @ TNF Downtown Seattle.”

1020 Placecast is the platform/enabler behind the campaign: 

Placecast created 1,000 geo-fences in and around New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Boston, cities where the North Face has many stores and areas that get a lot of snow or rain, so the company can tailor its messages to the weather. In urban areas, the fences are up to half a mile around stores, and in suburban areas they are up to a mile around stores.

The North Face campaign is an opt-in SMS campaign, which are relatively common today. The novel element is the fact that location will trigger delivery of the message when people enter one of the zones that Placecast has set up. 

These types of campaigns will be highly successful by their nature: people have opted-in and the highly local aspect will very likely drive people into stores. Placecast has an even more sophisticated notion of how to combine geography, demographics, context and time of day. But as you do more targeting you narrow your audience -- greater precision and response but smaller reach. 

Mobile marketing and advertising is a potentially much more precise and specific instrument than online (from a push standpoint). It will be very interesting to see how this campaign turns out (if North Face will allow Placecast to share that with the world). 

How Long Before FB Is a Mobile Ad Network?

There's a nice summary (and video) of Facebook VP Chamath Palihapitiya's speech at the Mobile World Congress (via TechCrunch) in which he discusses Facebook mobile growth and engagement and makes a pitch to work with carriers. Facebook says it already has relationships with 200 carriers globally (compare to Yahoo, which says it works with roughly 80 but with the potential reach of 800 million).

Here are some quick facts from the talk:

• 100 million active (daily) mobile users
• 200 million (50%) of Facebook's users have used or accessed it on mobile devices
• Mobile Facebook users are twice as engaged as PC users

 Palihapitiya pitched carriers on the idea that Facebook would help them grow data revenues. 

Facebook's mobile usage and growth are nothing short of amazing. But let's talk about what may be coming sooner rather than later: Facebook as a mobile ad network and one that offers location (and potentially demographics) as part of that proposition. 

There are currently no ads on Facebook's apps, mobile websites or SMS. I would almost bet my life that's going to change in the near-to-medium term. Facebook will be clever and careful about integrating advertising into mobile, mindful of the potential to alienate mobile users. However the mobile ad opportunity may be at least as big for Facebook as it is on the PC. 

Facebook is about to make $1 billion in ads on the PC; however neither I nor anyone I know pays attention to and/or clicks on them. However I do hear from marketers anecdotally that Facebook ad targeting does work. But offers and mobile advertising from SMBs and brands tied to location is a potentially huge opportunity for the company. 

I think it's just a matter of time before we see Facebook start to roll out an offering. And, on arrival, the company would be as large or larger than any existing mobile ad network. 

Loopt Still Struggling to Find Identity

Loopt, an early friend finder and mobile social network, has been totally eclipsed by Facebook in the latter category and is suffering at the hands of fast-growing local social gaming newcomers, FourSquare, GoWalla and MyTown, as a friend finder.

Recognizing its inevitable defeat as a pure social network it next tried to become Yelp. But Pelago's Whrrl already tried and failed at that. Yelp is doing a great job of being Yelp in mobile. 

Seeking other, alternative ways to gain traction Loopt introduced Loopt Mix (dating) and Pulse (feed aggregation + recommendations). Loopt is on all major carriers but the company is still suffering an identity crisis and trying to find its way as the market shifts quickly around it. 

Loopt recently did a deal with couponer Mobile Spinach. And now it's done a deal with food and wine email publisher Tasting Table to add high-end "foodie" content to Loopt. I'm afraid this isn't going to help much either. 

Millennial Media Offers 2009 'Year in Review'

Millennial Media has compiled a number of top lists from 2009 and put them together in a year in review report. The data are drawn from Millennial's own network and associated ad campaigns but the company says "Millennial Media is the largest mobile ad network, [so] we anticipate much of this data is fairly representative of the mobile ad industry as a whole."

Here are a few of the lists (covering all of 2009):

Campaign distribution by objective:

• 70% brand
• 30% performance 

Growth of mobile sites/applications (YoY): 117%

Advertiser growth (YoY): 54%

Top handsets by share of impressions:

1. iPhone
2. BlackBerry Curve
3. BlackBerry Pearl
4. HTC/Google G1
5. BlackBerry Storm 

Percent of advertisers using rich media in mobile: 17%

Top ad spending "verticals" in 2009:

1. Portals & directories
2. Entertainment
3. Telecommunications
4. Dating
5. CPG
6. Retail & restaurants
7. Finance
8. Travel
9. Automotive
10. Health 

Compare the IAB's top online spending categories/industries:

Here's Millennial's December report for comparison.

Retrevo: 20% Under 35 Click Mobile Ads

Electronics comparison site Retrevo conducted an online survey (n=1,000) of US adults earlier this month, regarding mobile shopping and receptiveness to mobile advertising. The data are generally consistent with our data and other information in the market; consumers increasingly use their phones as shopping aids/tools but are ambivalent toward mobile advertising. (One note: attitudes and behavior don't line up in the discussion of mobile ads.)

Younger users were generally more "advanced" in their behaviors and receptive to mobile advertising. To see the full results and Retrevo's discussion go here. 

Q: Have you ever used a mobile phone to research products, compare prices, find retailers or to shop?

Source: Retrevo (2/09, n=1,000)

Q: Have you made a purchase using a mobile phone?

Source: Retrevo (2/09, n=1,000)

Q: Have you ever responded to an advertisement on your mobile phone?

Source: Retrevo (2/09, n=1,000)

The top chart, about using the handset during shopping, is the one to focus on. We can qualify all the findings as perhaps being not entirely representative of the mainstream shopper, etc. However, we will see huge numbers of people using handsets for research and other information (looking for deals?) during the shopping process. 

Much of the so-called "mobile commerce" is going to be about finding the right product for less online: I confirm I want it in the store and buy it for less on Amazon, for example. This scenario may eventually become a problem for retailers and boost e-commerce, ironically. 

Ads that are relevant and timely (think coupons, deals, discounts in shopping) will also succeed despite apparent consumer hostility. 

___

Related: Shopping by Mobile Will Grow to $119 Billion in 2015

This forecast apparently consists of virtual goods payments and actual mobile buying of conventional goods. The former is a big market getting bigger. The latter will grow but the $119 billion figure is very aggressive. Dominant scenario is reflected the first chart above: using the phone to research, check prices -- not buy via mobile. 

Mobile High on Marketer 'To-Do' List but Confusion Remains

Again and again we see surveys that suggest or otherwise argue that mobile is now in the mix, that reflect advertisers and agencies' increasing interest in mobile. But they're still a little foggy about what to do and exactly how to do it.

Take the following as another example of the above; conducted by digital marketing services firm R2i a survey fielded in January (sample size unknown) showed that many marketers now consider mobile "important" but are vague about strategy and tactics:

How important is "mobile marketing" to your overall marketing strategy for 2010?

• Very important: 22%
• Important: 26%
• Somewhat important: 28%
• Not important: 8%

(76% consider it at least "somewhat important." But that leaves 16% unaccounted for; presumably they're in the "no" or "N/A" category.)

Main reason for executing a mobile marketing campaign:

• Company awareness: 41%
• Lead generation: 33%

What constitutes success?

• Quantifying ROI: 43%
• Increase in customers: 49%

Impediments to executing a mobile marketing campaign

• “not knowing how to develop the business case": 32%
• “not enough analytics to measure the ROI": 30%

Budgeting

The release reported that "63% of respondents said they’d only allocate up to 15% of their budgets on mobile marketing." On the one hand this is a generous number for a new medium; however it also indicates that people don't really know what the appropriate amount is (it would be campaign and objective specific of course).

Campaign and marketing focus

• Mobile website development: 52%
• Mobile app development: 42%

Importance of smartphone platforms (those indicating "very important")

• iPhone: 59%
• BlackBerry: 40%
• Android: 8%

This is a single survey but I would imagine fairly representative of the following issues:

• Growing advertiser interest
• Confusion over how to quantify and measure success
• Where to spend/invest in mobile
• What the objectives of campaigns should be 

No longer do mobile networks and firms need to educate marketers about why to do mobile as much as they need to promote concrete examples and best practices to show them how -- especially the role that mobile can play in the context of other traditional and digital marketing and advertising.

Would Google Buy T-Mobile? Unlikely

Years ago there were always suggestions and discussion about whether Google would acquire a newspaper or yellow pages publisher. The culture of Google and those types of companies were so different -- which the proponents never fully understood -- that it was never going to happen. Now we have a similar argument going on in favor of Google buying the US operations of German carrier T-Mobile.

T-Mobile is struggling in the UK and US. In the UK the company has sought to form a joint venture with Orange and merge their operations. It has yet to be approved by regulators. In the US there have been persistent rumors that T-Mobile would have to do something similar or buy smaller carriers or merge with Sprint, etc. to advance its position in the market. 

Android devices and aggressive pricing have not been able to move the needle for the company. The same is true for number three US carrier Sprint, however the company did lose a much smaller number of postpaid customers last quarter. 

From Google's point of view, there's a certain logic to buying a carrier: 

• It wants to sell phones directly to the market
• It gets a network
• It gets retail outlets to push its devices

However, I'm still quite skeptical that this would happen because of HR issues (buying employees) and other questions (direct competition with carrier partners). But it's not as much of a stretch now, given Google's plans and strategy, as the "Google should buy a newspaper" arguments made in the past. 

While Google is unlikely to buy a T-Mobile it's hypothetically possible that Google would make an investment in T-Mobile to gain access to its network, as it has with Sprint's Clearwire.