I've got to hand it to Loopt; every few months the company tries something different to rise above the noise in the LBS-SoLoMo market. Sometimes these efforts are very creative. The latest effort, "U-Deals," is a little bit of "back to the future."
The central idea is this: you identify a business and potential discount, publicize and get others on board and then Loopt tries to sell it to the business with some guarantee of participation.
This is a variation on the original "group buying" or reverse auction model that existed in the late '90s. The twist here is that the deal doesn't exist unless or until the consumer suggests or requests it. MerchantCircle also had similar functionality built into its platform, although it was mainly intended for individuals communicating with local businesses rather than for groups.
As I mentioned, this is a very creative twist on daily deals. However there's probably too much work involved for consumers for it it succeed on any kind of scale. To that end, Loopt has tried to automate the process as much as possible through its app: check in, request the deal at specified deal tiers or price points (see at left) and then promote on social networks.
It's much easier for consumers to simply find deals through customary channels like Groupon. (Loopt is a Groupon syndication partner as well.) We may see some adoption of this but I would be very surprised if U-Deals took off.
Right now this is only available in the San Francisco Bay Area on the iPhone and Android platforms. Here's a video that quickly explains the program and how it works.
Update: In fairness to Loopt and U-Deals I have to admit that I purchased the first deal, a discount voucher on Virgin America Airlines. We'll see how the program proceeds; I could be very wrong. However this was not a consumer-initiated deal I'm sure. That's what I'm critical of: not deals but the reliance on consumers to generate and promote them.
Last year Pew and Forrester both came out with reports arguing that LBS check-ins (e.g., Foursquare) were being embraced by only a small fraction of the mobile audience. In July Forrester asserted that "geolocation applications like Foursquare" were only occasionally being used by 4% of all Internet users.
In November Pew released findings from a telephone survey (n=3,001) that argued a similar 4% of PC Internet users and 7% of mobile Internet users were on LBS services. However 4% of online adults actually turns out to be a big number. It's roughly 8 million people, using the ~200 million online audience base of comScore.
In the aggregate, in 2010, there were probably several million people in the US checking in on Foursquare, Gowalla, MyTown, Whrrl and others, including Google Latitude.
Today Foursquare says it has 8.5 million users alone and many others, including Yelp and Facebook, offer check-ins. Facebook has not released official numbers but claims it is "by far" the largest check-in site out there. So the numbers are clearly growing.
ComScore released data yesterday asserting that, now, nearly 17 million mobile users are engaged to some degree with "check-in services":
16.7 million U.S. mobile subscribers used location-based “check-in” services on their phones in March 2011, representing 7.1 percent of the entire mobile population. 12.7 million check-in users did so on a smartphone, representing 17.6 percent of the smartphone population.
ComScore defines this category to include Facebook Places, Foursquare and Gowalla. It's unclear what the full list of sites was or whether beyond a couple of examples, the definition of check-in sites was left up to user interpretation.
As one might expect smartphones were the primary source of check-ins, constituting 76.3% of all usage. Here's the smartphone "check-in" OS breakdown:
Overall comScore says that these check-in users "showed a high propensity for mobile media usage, including accessing retail sites and shopping guides, and displayed other characteristics of early adopters, including a stronger likelihood of owning a tablet device and accessing tech news, when compared to the average smartphone user."
One surprise according to the survey data is that women overall outnumber men on check-in services, in contrast to last year's Forrester findings that showed a wide gap favoring men.
Anecdotal evidence, notwithstanding the growth comScore proclaims, suggests that a large number of early users of check-in services have walked away and are no longer using them on a regular basis.
Deals and loyalty programs -- such as one just announced between SPG and Foursquare -- are the key to keeping check-ins alive. In the absence of such rewards or incentives the check-in will either die or have to dramatically evolve and deliver some other type of value to survive.
HubSpot's new Dan Zarrella conducted an interesting analysis of "more than 70,000 Facebook public posts" and found that "32.69% of those posts were created from mobile devices." Apps collectively account for roughly 13% of mobile updates, while facebook's mobile website (m.facebook.com) constitutes roughly 19% of mobile posts.
Facebook has more than 250 million active daily mobile users around the world. And it is the most "engaging" mobile property in terms of time spent (see below). At some point the company we can expect that the site will turn on mobile advertising. There's a version of that today in the form of "check-in deals."
Source: Dan Zarrella
Source: GSMA UK, 12/10
This past weekend Foursquare announced a deal with Amex, which was first reported in the Wall Street Journal. The partnership essentially offers discounts and rewards for checking in at participating local businesses:
Under the arrangement, AmEx customers can register their cards in the Foursquare system to get access to special offers from merchants who are also Foursquare participants. Customers who shop at those merchants with an AmEx card will receive credits and electronic notification that they have redeemed the offer. Merchants who participate in the program would potentially see more sales. . . .
The Foursquare partnership is AmEx's latest offering aimed at people who are roughly a generation younger than the company's traditional customer. AmEx has introduced several new cards targeted at the hip and tech-savvy generation in recent years, with mixed success.
It's going to be initially tested at the SXSW conference coming up next week in Austin, Texas: "Sixty local merchants will honor the 'spend $5, save $5' promotion."
It's great PR and a great high-profile deal for Foursquare, which now has more than 8 million users globally. Amex claims, however, this isn't simply about younger users but about new forms of loyalty and cardmember engagement.
On paper it all makes sense; however there are some potential challenges with the deal. I couldn't find empirical data but my understanding is that on average Amex cardholders are generally older than the bulk of Foursquare users, although there will be some overlap. According to Pew, here's the demographic breakdown of "location based services" users:
This "generic" LBS user profile cuts more broadly than Foursquare specifically. And Google's Ad Planner (as well as Quantcast and Alexa) shows a user base that is somewhat older than Pew's profile. It also shows more female users on Foursquare.
Beyond the "demographic" challenge, is the fact that most local businesses don't use Foursquare to promote themselves. In addition many don't take Amex; you remember the Visa ads. ("They won't take no for an answer, and they won't take American Express.")
In our recent SMB survey about 8% of respondents said they were using Foursquare to promote themselves. This number cannot be generalized to the entire population of SMBs. That would effectively mean about 2 million SMBs actively on Foursquare marketing themselves. The 8% figure is larger than in previous surveys, reflecting Foursquare's growth and increased visibility. However the number of businesses using it to acquire new customers or as a loyalty platform is relatively small.
Accordingly you have to find SMBs or national-local entities that are on Foursquare (and take Amex), together with Foursquare users who have Amex cards to use in those establishments. This slices the potential pie pretty thinly. Yet this is the right direction for Foursquare, which will have enormous difficulty monetizing via SMB self-service. It needs to make big deals with channel partners and do national-local deals with retailers to generate meaningful revenue.
Loopt was an early friend finder and social network for mobile devices that has been forced to reinvent itself and try different things repeatedly because of the entry competitors and better-known brands into its space: e.g., Yelp, Foursquare, Facebook, Google.
The most recent effort to do that is with its new "Reward Alerts," which are limited-time offers that are pushed to users based on location. This is similar to an AT&T-Placecast ShopAlerts initiative that was also announced this week. In that case AT&T handset users opt-in to receive deal alerts and they're pushed to users via SMS/MMS depending on location.
Initial advertisers for the Loopt program include Participating companies include Altec Lansing, FOX Broadcasting, Gilt City, Jawbone, Microsoft, OkCupid, Southwest Airlines, TabbedOut, Twelve South, TiVo and Yurbuds.
In order to participate, users must download the new version of the app, turn on "rewards" then the deals start flowing based on where users are. Loopt has had a deals/coupons product for some time in Loopt Star; however this is a more interesting and potentially successful implementation.
Deals have become immensely popular and the opt-in/push dimension of Placecast's and now Loopt's programs will make them compelling to marketers. For Loopt scale will be key. The company has more than four million users (compare Foursquare's 6+ million). However the Placecast program, because it's text-based, has an addressable audience of 95 million hypothetically (the entire AT&T subscriber base).
WHERE also offers location-based push couponing.
GSMA, the organization behind the Mobile World Congress, commissioned research in January that showed mobile apps generally beating the browser for time spent. The research had a global scope and was performed by European mobile analytics company Zokem.
However apps vs. browser access differed by category according to the findings:
News, search and commerce apps and sites receive much more usage still from mobile web browsers, with 86%, 85% and 66% of mobile web browser users using them monthly. Only 22% of web browser users access web-based email services, and only 18% use games through a web browser. For email, native apps reach 76% of smartphone users monthly, and games reach 45%.
Multimedia related services, like online music and video, are predominantly used through native apps rather than a smartphone web browser. Apps and web browsing usage patterns, therefore, are quite different, and the usage balance between browsers vs. native apps is driven by the type of app in question.
Mobile apps are responsible for 667 minutes of use per user each month according to Zokem. Compare messaging (671 minutes), voice (531 minutes) and web browsing (422 minutes).
Social networking apps (the category is not clearly defined) consume "almost 10 percent of all smartphone 'face time.'" Facebook and YouTube are the most heavily penetrated social media apps. (I disagree with YouTube being characterized as social media.)
The study found that iPhone and Android owners used roughly 15 apps per month; BlackBerry and Nokia owners used about half that number (8). The iTunes store and Android Markets enjoyed 95% reach with their users, while Blackberry App World has 50% reach and Nokia's Ovi store reached less than 30% of Symbian users. The data also showed that "iPhones generated more than 200 percent more traffic per month on average than Android devices."
Contradicting some other data and claims in the market the study found smartphone usage declined on weekends but "averaged more than 70 minutes per day with apps capturing more face time than any other activity at weekends."
The new INQ "Cloud Touch" is getting a lot of play today. Unveiled yesterday this is an Android-based Facebook-optimized phone. INQ is a subsidiary of Hutchison Whampoa, which is based in Taiwan. HTC is also planning to introduce an Android phone that has a higher degree of Facebook integration.
INQ previously released a line of "social mobiles" that were social-networking optimized handsets. The Cloud Touch is the next generation of that line with an emphasis on Facebook in particular.
What's most interesting to me from the video I've seen -- I haven't held the device in my hands -- is that the phone offers a new interface for Android and thus stands out from among the scores of generic-looking Android phones now in the market. It's the first really interesting new Android interface (Motorola's Motoblur and HTC's Sense interface are basically worthless).
According to the Financial Times, "users will only have to sign in to Facebook once, when setting up the device, allowing their credentials to be used automatically by third-party applications." That will help create some interesting user experiences; Facebook recenty introduced single sign-on for mobile. This is removes friction but also creates potential privacy issues.
The Cloud Touch is also like Flipboard in a certain way in that it points to and reflects the media, links and content that are being shared; it's not all about the Facebook interface. The handsets also integrate streaming music service Spotify, which isn't in the US and may never be because of rights issues.
The new handsets are coming to the UK market later this quarter (and probably Canada) but there's no word on a US release date.
The Android apps interface is in most respects a knock-off of the iPhone interface -- all touch-screen smartphones now in the market are derivative of the iPhone -- but this interface is innovative. It may mark the beginning of true differentiation among Android handsets.
I suspect the INQ Cloud Touch will be quite popular when it's released.
Facebook is the top free iPhone app of "all time" (so far). The site is also the top site or the number two site in most countries around the world according to Opera's regular reporting. The company has more than 200 million mobile users who are the most active of Facebook's more than 600 million global members. According to the most recently published public numbers from the social network:
Facebook also operates the "0.facebook.com" site to reach users on non-smartphones. But yesterday Facebook announced a new feature-phone app from Snaptu. The idea is to drive global penetration and usage even further, recognizing the strategic importance of mobile to the future of the business.
Smartphones will be in the majority in the "West" across the board at some point in the next five years. But around the world, inexpensive feature phones or not-quite-smartphones will remain dominant for the foreseeable future. This new app will help provide a better user experience than the 0.facebook mobile Web/Wap experience.
Simultaneously Facebook is reportedly working with mobile-handset manufacturer INQ Mobile Ltd on a couple of Android-based quasi-branded smartphones. Facebook also recently launched Connect and single sign-on for mobile phones. In short the company is trying to penetrate and conquer the entire mobile ecosystem from top to bottom, from apps to hardware.
What it doesn't (yet) have is mobile advertising. This will come without question. And when it does, Facebook will be largest mobile ads network/platform on the globe.
Amazon knows how to sell things -- that's for sure. But will the leading e-commerce destination be able to sell apps for developers in a way that Google's own Android market has largely been unable to? My belief is, yes. The Amazon Appstore was formally announced on Tuesday.
Amazon must first get developers to sign up and participate; but I suspect that almost all serious Android developers will submit their existing apps for approval. The promise of a lower-friction consumer purchase funnel for apps will be a major part of the appeal. Amazon has millions of consumer credit cards on file and is a trusted retailer. The notion of a one-click purchase (like iTunes) could help developers make much more money off Android.
Here's Amazon's pitch:
Why should you submit your apps for inclusion in the Amazon Appstore for Android?
--For the first time, you will have access to tens of millions of active Amazon customers.
--Amazon’s proven marketing and merchandising features will help you get your apps discovered and in front of the right customers.
--The convenience of using an existing Amazon.com account will make it simple and easy for customers to purchase your apps - both online and on their mobile devices.
The third one is arguably the most important.
There have been persistent developer complaints that consumers aren't buying apps on Android. As a percentage of overall apps downloaded paid apps are considerably lower on Android than other smartphone platforms, iOS in particular. Part of that is the "culture" of Google and Android -- Google favors the mobile Web over apps -- and part of it is the lack of a smooth payment system. (I wrote about how Google's failure to drive Checkout adoption is now hurting the company with Android developers.)
Amazon may be able to use its celebrated recommendations and merchandising capabilities to create the leading Android marketplace. If it succeeds it will be interesting to see how Google reacts.
Previously I argued that LBS apps are as much about brand engagement as they are about deals/coupons. (Indeed this is where the money is.) Here's another of several examples: the Nissan "Juke the City" promotion using SCVNGR as an engagement tool.
SCVNGR, which just raised a $15 million funding round is being used by Nissan in connection with a sweepstakes to help build awareness of the new car.
According to the company's blog, users with the app (iPhone, Android) check in and complete challenges at locations in several cities (Chicago, Los Angeles, New York or San Francisco) in order to be entered to win a new Juke. There are also lesser prizes involved.
We'll see more and more smart brands use LBS apps to influence user behavior around new products this year and into the future. It's partly about location but mostly about brand awareness and affinity. And the gaming aspect works perfects in this context.
Deals are great to drive people into stores and physical locations (and for loyalty). But there's an equally large if not larger opportunity for these LBS firms and brands to work together in clever and creative ways.
In creating FaceTime Apple brought a differentiated feature to the iPhone 4: video calling. However it only works over WiFi. Fring stepped up to offer it over 3G but the company is relatively obscure outside tech circles. But now that Skype has added video and 3G support for the iPhone, it's truly poised to become a mainstream phenomenon.
Here's what the updated app does according to Skype:
Skype also repeated a stat about its usage: "approximately 25 million people [are] signed into Skype at any given time." That's a lot of people but a much smaller number than the broader group of "registered Skype users," numbering in excess of 400 million globally.
I haven't yet tried it and don't know how good it is but I suspect it will be extremely popular.
Once the iPhone comes to Verizon it will be interesting to see how Skype is handled. Currently Skype calling on Verizon's other smartphones (e.g., RIM, Android) counts against voice minutes, which makes no sense from a user point of view though it does from the perspective of a carrier worried about users circumventing or sidestepping the limits of its voice plans.
Opus Research, the firm behind Internet2Go, is putting on a different kind of social media event in San Francisco on Feb 2-3, 2011: Conversational Commerce: The Collision between Marketing and Customer Care -- or "C3."
Most social media events consider issues like "social shopping" or how community is changing consumer applications or social marketing to consumers on Facebook or Twitter. Those are interesting topics but we're aiming for something more specific and enterprise focused -- and we think we're unique or at least first with these topics.
Customer service now has brand implications because it plays out in public on social networks. And marketing organizations can learn a ton from the data and interactions being captured by customer service units. Most of the time, however, the two groups don't communicate or coordinate. This is a big missed opportunity. And one could argue that social media now forces a "conversation" between these silos within organizations -- even as it's forcing "conversational marketing" on brands.
The genesis of this event was from multiple conversations we were having with marketers and customer service platform providers. And we think we're bringing together a unique collection of speakers who don't normally appear together on the same stage. We've got companies and organizations like Cisco, RapLeaf, Yelp, iCrossing, Marchex, Innovation Interactive/360i, Edelman, Creative Realities, Acxiom, the MMA, Empirix, Lithium, Get Satisfaction, Orange Labs, Air2Web, Oodle, Closely, Vendasta, Praized, Comcast, Fair Isaac Corporation, Weber Shandwick and others still to be formally announced.
We also think we've put together a provocative and meaningful agenda that isn't full of the normal social media "fluff." Here are a few of the sessions:
The day-and-a-half event will also feature provocative case studies from Cisco, Marchex, Lithium and Get Satisfaction mixed with panel discussions.
The stakes are high for brands and marketers as they figure out how to use social media most effectively for marketing -- and customer support. Marketers and customer care people have a lot to learn from one another but they often aren't talking. This event will get them talking and will showcase best practices and concrete takeaways.
This isn't a mobile conference, a search conference, a local conference or even a social media conference per se. But it will address all these topics. We think it could turn out to be the most interesting and useful conference you attend in 2011. We're also hosting it in a club (rather than a hotel) in SOMA, San Francisco.
UK mobile content and search vendor Mobile Commerce revealed its analysis of the UK's top mobile search queries of 2010. Three out of the top 10 are Facebook:
These are, almost without exception, navigational queries. The exception is Google, which would then lead to some other kind of lookup or search presumably.
For comparison here is Opera's November list of the top UK sites visited by its users:
Below is the expanded list of Mobile Commerce's "top 100 mobile search terms for 2010." Assuming that the MC list is generally accurate what's interesting and curious, among other things, is that Google Maps appears at number 60. Yet we know that Google Maps is one of the most widely used tools on the iPhone and Android devices in particular.
What that suggests is that much of Google Maps usage is coming via app and not through the search box (of course). But it's a potential window into the larger "apps vs. search" phenomenon. Similarly, compare Opera's list above (where Amazon is number 8) to Amazon's position at number 48 on the list below. This is again suggestive of app usage or another way to get to the site (i.e., bookmark) vs. mobile search.
Sprint has stopped bleeding subscribers in the US and has won many pre-paid converts. It has also held the line on unlimited pricing as AT&T and Verizon move to usage-based pricing (which consumers don't like).
Yet being the first "4G" network has not won Sprint many or even any defectors from other carriers. As Verizon and T-Mobile roll out competing "4G" networks any hypothetical first mover competitive advantage for Sprint is gone.
However an idea floated during the recent "D" mobile conference by Sprint CEO Dan Hesse could be a real winner. According to a summary of his on-stage interview Sprint is considering offering a single plan (using the Clear infrastructure) for multiple devices, although he hedged on pricing and whether it would be truly "unlimited."
From the AllThingsD coverage:
Dan Hesse: Customers will pay a premium for simplicity. Even if it’s not in their best economic interest, they will go with the unlimited plan
Walt Mossberg: Are you not going to do tiered pricing?
Hesse: So far, we aren’t
Mossberg: Unlimited means unlimited or doesn’t it?
Hesse: No, it doesn’t . . . The trend is toward one plan for all of your devices, like tablets, phones, PCs, etc.
Mossberg: Are you going to offer plans for all those devices?
Hesse: We are thinking about it. That’s the next step to simplicity. Three years ago, it was about one device.
Pricing would be THE key to the success or failure of such a strategy, with performance a very close second. However, conceptually, this is a winner for Sprint and could gain the company plenty of new subscribers if implemented correctly. However if there were early signs of success it would be quickly copied by other US carriers.
ChaCha announced that it had answered its billionth question:
ChaCha, the #1 free, real-time answers service, today announced that it has answered the billionth question submitted by its rapidly growing user base of 25 million online and mobile users.
The ChaCha story is impressive. I won't recount it all here but it began as a "social search" engine online and then "found its voice" as a mobile answers service with voice and SMS input. It has since become a key ad platform (SMS) for reaching teens and young adults.
Other data points released (verbatim from the release):
The company says it still has 62,000 guides, though in the recent past more questions are answered via a database of existing answers.
Rival paid service kgb has struggled to maintain and grow usage volumes and is placing increasing emphasis on its daily deals offering. The two companies are polar opposites with essentially the same consumer value proposition: human-powered search results or answers. ChaCha has always had traffic because it's free, monetization and revenues were the problem, while kgb had a business model but had trouble building loyalty because it isn't free.
Both services exist against the backdrop of declining 411 volumes as people adopt other tools and platforms.
Yesterday Google launched Hotpot, a local recommendations engine that leverages Web history, your ratings/reviews and those of your network to offer personalized local business suggestions as part of search results. I wrote about it briefly on Screenwerk.
The success of Hotpot in the aggregate and for any individual in particular is based on participation; you actually have to connect with friends and rate places to see the benefits. After about 10 minutes of doing that online I started to feel fatigue (I've also got jetlag). But mobile is where this really has the potential to take off in my opinion. Ratings generated via mobile devices will also show up online as well.
Right now "rate and review" is a bit buried at the bottom of business profile pages in Google Places/Maps for mobile. But over time it will likely become more prominent, prompting people to quickly rate local business and attractions on the spot. Over time I could well imagine the majority of reviews from the system coming from mobile devices.
Taptu was an ambitious "touch-friendly" mobile search engine that didn't stand a chance of competing with Google or Bing. So the company has wisely reinvented its core product as a "social news aggregator," My Taptu.
When I saw the new look and feel -- a scrolling grid of cards or tiles that can be customized with any content source -- it reminded me of Flipboard. "This isn't just an RSS reader," CEO and former Yahoo executive Mitch Lazar told me however. Indeed the company's search technology and assets support the new app, which is available now on Android and the iPhone.
Each tile offers a summary of the content, often together with an image and a link to "read on website." Clicking the link takes users to the original source.
Content can be easily added or deleted from the rows and columns of scrolling tiles. Within sections users can quickly move through lots of content very smoothly. Overall it's a really useful and visually pleasing news reader -- although I think it can go even further in that direction.
In terms of the monetization question, one can easily imagine contextually relevant, sponsored tiles; so an ad-supported model is pretty obvious here. However Taptu's job is to drive adoption which can later be monetized.
This UI and approach would be arguably even more effective on the iPad, which would put My Taptu in direct competition with Flipboard and other visual news aggregators like Pulse.
I'm sure this is becoming more common, but I hadn't seen it previously: an advertiser driving from a mobile display ad to a Facebook page (see images below). In this case the advertiser is Visa (and the NFL) and the ad appeared on the mobile Internet HTML homepage of Yahoo.
The Facebook fan page isn't optimized for mobile so arguably it's not going to be as effective in driving fan acquisition as would be a specific mobile fan page. It could either be a test of the utility and feasibility of Facebook pages as landing pages -- or it could just be sloppy.
Previously Millennial Media reported that the following was the mix of "destinations" for mobile ad campaigns on its network:
The largest category of "destinations" was a corporate site, followed by a custom landing page and then an application download. Presumably the custom landing page is optimized for mobile and so wouldn't be a conventional Facebook fan page.
Here's the Visa banner ad and then the full Facebook landing page, which is too small to really be effective on the iPhone.
Pew has released findings from a recent telephone survey (n=3,001) that asserts 4% of PC Internet users and 7% of mobile Internet users are on location-based services such as Foursquare or Gowalla. The first number is in general agreement with Forrester's survey numbers. There are other surveys that have found somewhat higher LBS usage numbers.
Pew found LBS users tend to be male and under 30:
One of the "issues" here is how questions are formulated and explained over the phone. What definition of a "location-based service" is being used for example? (Pew typically posts survey questions but in this instance they're missing.) In addition, if you asked people about the importance of location on mobile devices the numbers would be far larger. And once again, frustratingly, Pew doesn't segment or break out smartphones vs. non-smartphones.
Pew does however segment LBS usage by users of Twitter and social networks. Twitter users tend to use LBS much more than other populations. This makes sense in many respects.
If the extrapolate these Pew figures (from the 4% figure above) and turn them into real numbers, we can say that there are about 8 million users of these services in the US.
People want to focus on scale and volume in these discussions. Yet talking about how many users there are today misses the larger point in a way. The larger point is that these services have brought together something interesting and relatively new, combining local-social-mobile, and created a model for a next-generation cityguide, among other things.
I had been thinking about LBS chiefly in terms of coupons and direct marketing opportunities. However these services can equally be brand engagement tools or mediums. In fact, in some ways they're more effective in that context. They can equally work as new customer acquisition platforms and as loyalty vehicles.
There's something very interesting going on with LBS and it's important to study that carefully. The market is changing and LBS is a new model for future services. Any of the individual companies may not survive but the larger phenomenon of social + local + mobile definitely will.
As is now widely known Facebook is having a "mobile event" on November 3. There have been many rumors of a "Facebook phone." That would be pretty interesting and exciting but it's fairly unlikely. So what will be announced?
My guess is that Facebook will first rattle off some impressive mobile statistics. Here's where Facebook's mobile stats stand today:
I'll guess that we'll hear that there are now more than 200 million active mobile users on Facebook among other juicy tidbits.
I've long speculated that Facebook would eventually become a mobile ad network. The amazing thing, if it were to do so, is that it would have equal or greater reach than any mobile carrier and probably any other mobile ad network today. But Facebook isn't immediately concerned with making money in mobile; there's no internal pressure to monetize mobile. Some have estimated that Facebook is on track to do $2 billion in online ad revenue.
Another reasonable guess is that we'll see the debut of "Facebook Deals," which may be partly tied to Facebook Places. It may also have an entirely independent existence on the PC. Right now Facebook Places doesn't offer any "reason" for users to check in -- unlike other LBS services that offer badges or coupons. I've seen estimates recently that Facebook Places has "7X" the check-ins of Foursquare, which now boasts about 4 million users.
A deals product could offer a check-in incentive and a nice advertising vehicle for brands and SMBs alike. Regardless of what gets announced next Wednesday, Facebook is a kind of "sleeping giant" in mobile and LBS. Anything it does in these realms has the potential to shake up (or accelerate) the industry.