Forecast: Google Mobile Revenue to Exceed $11 Billion in 2013

Last year Google brought in ad revenues of $43.7 billion. This year, thus far, the company has made roughly $24 billion. For the full year 2013 Google is likely to earn $50 billion in advertising revenue. That may be a low projection, however.

EMarketer today released some estimates on the breakdown of PC vs. mobile and search vs. display revenues for Google. According to the estimates, search will generate 82% of Google's overall revenue this year with just under 20% of search revenue coming from mobile.

By comparison 2% of display ad revenue will come from mobile. 

Over time the data aggregator sees more than 40% of Google's total ad revenues coming from mobile (search + display). 

Let's look at what these breakdowns (if accurate) would mean in real terms, assuming $50 billion in total projected ad revenue for 2013:

  • Search: $41 billion
  • Display: $9 billion

The other way to view those revenues is the following:

  • PC:  $38.5 billion
  • Mobile: $11.5 billion

If the standard US (45%) vs. international (55%) ad revenue distribution holds for mobile then the following will be the rough figures for Google mobile ad revenue by geography (approximately): 

  • US: $5.1 billion
  • International:  $6.3 billion 

Despite the above, Google's US mobile ad revenue is likely to be somewhat stronger than its mobile revenues from outside the US. Accordingly I would probably flip those percentage figures when it came to mobile. 

Last year the IAB reported that mobile ad revenue in the US was $3.4 billion. This year it's likely to hit $7 billion according to our estimates. If that's correct then the Google figure above is too aggressive.