Fri, 10/19/2012 - 12:19 by Greg Sterling
For several reasons I had occasion to look back at some of the mobile predictions I made in January. At the risk of sounding self-important or boastful many of them have come to pass. In fact I was somewhat surprised by the number, which is why I'm posting about it now.
For review, here are the original predictions from January:
- 2012 ends with 65% smartphone penetration in the US
- Android reaches 60%+ smartphone penetration by the end of 2012
- Voice search: Siri expands its reach to many more third party services; Google and Microsoft beef up their competitive voice offerings
- Apple launches its own mapping service for iOS
- RIM’s co-CEOs resign in 1H 2012
- Windows Phones see modest but not huge success in North America, greater success in Europe/Asia
- Major smartphone security (hacking/virus) event happens this year (most likely on Android handsets)
- Mobile payments see continued growth but 2012 isn’t the “breakthrough” year
- Tablets galore: 100 million tablets in market by the end of 2012 (globally). The iPad represents 65% of the market
- Google announces mobile ads “run rate” of $4 billion (in Q4)
- Facebook launches mobile advertising in 1H 2012
- Amazon buys a mobile ad network (Millennial or Jumptap)
Here are my comments and updates on each item:
- The smartphone penetration number (per Nielsen) right now is 55%; we'll probably end the year close to 60%
- Android smartphone market share in the US is 53% now (per comScore), probably going to 55% - 57% by the end of Q4 2012
- Siri has been beefed up and its structured data sources expanded. Google has answered to some degree with "Google Now" and related voice assistant; however Microsoft hasn't done anything significant in this arena beyond its core voice search.
- Apple Maps launched of course
- RIM’s co-CEOs both resigned in the first half
- Windows Phones have continued to lose share in the US market (per comScore) but have seen some modest success in other markets
- Android malware has dramatically increased but there has been no single cataclysmic event
- Mobile payments and wallets continue to make incremental gains (see Apple Passbook) but 2012 isn't the "breakthrough year"
- The iPad's market share is about 68% on a global basis today. Roughly 84 million iPads have been sold to date and many millions of other non-iOS tablets. I suspect the 100 million threshold will be crossed by the end of Q4 if it hasn't been already
- Google announced a mobile run rate of $8 billion, with probably 70% to 75% of it being ad revenue.
- Facebook did launch mobile advertising
- Amazon has not (yet) bought a mobile ad network
Not bad . . .