Because of a research note sent out last week by Mark Mahaney at Citigoup the BIA/Kelsey mobile ad numbers were picked up in Business Insider and at TechCrunch. However, they're based on basic and in my view incomplete thinking about the market. As I've argued before forecasts are primarily a marketing vehicle and in one sense don't matter. They're almost like the "how many angels fit on the head of a pin" discussions of the Medieval European clergy. But because some numbers get repeated and become established it's important to be thoughtful and as rigorous as possible in developing them. In particular among the Kelsey numbers paid search is not going to constitute 73% of all mobile advertising in the US in 2013.
First the numbers:
2008:
Kelsey:
SMS: 63%
Search: 24%
Display: 13%Compare eMarketer:
SMS: 60%
Search: 22%
Display: 18%
2013:
Kelsey:
SMS: 9%
Search: 73%
Display: 18%Compare eMarketer:
SMS: 28%
Search: 35%
Display: 37%
Today display represents 22% and search 47% of the online ad spend. In recent quarters there has been a move toward search and away from display to a degree. Display prices online, until recently, also took a pretty severe beating because of excess inventory. Thus a big bet on search in mobile by analogy seems to make sense. Search is proven, search is safe. There's also the logical priority of local search in mobile, which occupies a disproportionate volume of mobile search revenues in the Kelsey forecast.
But unless you define "search" extremely broadly to be any directional-intent lookup, using a variety of methods and modalities, this 73% figure is unlikely to come to pass. It's just too large a share. In addition, as TechCrunch points out, Kelsey is effectively arguing that 73% of mobile ad revenues in the US will be owned by Google as the dominant player. I'm certainly bullish on local and search more generally but these projections are insufficiently sensitive to potential future market developments and the more complex nature of mobile.
Google and Yahoo are both putting ads in mobile search results on smartphones as a matter of routine. In this sense the issue of how mobile search will be monetized is conceptually solved: online campaigns simply go into mobile with limited additional effort by the advertiser. Mobile clicks on paid search results = mobile search revenues. However there are only one or two ads in Google mobile results that are "above the fold" compared to as many as eight or so online. Better CTRs in mobile ultimately may compensate for smaller numbers of ads to some degree.
However, the conventional PC based search experience as it exists today will not prevail on the mobile handset over time -- it could in the world of eReaders and tablets if they catch on and become mainstream Internet access devices. But the mobile "search" experience will evolve. Competition guarantees it. There are a range of mobile apps and experiences that use a browse approach but also represent a "directional intent" lookup: Yelp's "restaurants" category that shows nearby places to eat. Is this a mobile "search"? yes and no.
There's also the question of the distribution of ads and ad revenues from apps vs. the mobile Web. Mobile apps are largely monetized and supported by display ad networks, including Google AdSense. And relatively soon, like search, online display campaigns will be more easily ported over the mobile. This will create a great deal more relevant display ad inventory. However there are some challenges that must be overcome before mobile display can truly fulfill its potential. But those challenges will be solved.
Recently online display CPMs have fallen. And with display there's the question of whether the model is pure CPM, CPC or even CPA. If CPC prevails, which it rightfully should not, then the display contribution will be lower than if most mobile display is billed on a CPM basis. There's another post coming on why CTRs are a bad metric for mobile display. ComScore and the OPA have recently made that point several times.
Regardless, display (and rich media) will play a significant role in mobile advertising over the long term. That will include mobile Web and apps. How will AR be monetized? Both by search and display. Views through the camera will offer display ads, brand logos (not unlike what Google is doing with Maps on the iPhone), coupons and deals.
Then there's the question of definitions and what counts as "advertising" vs. "mobile marketing." SMS will have an ongoing role in mobile marketing, especially as a customer acquisition and loyalty tool and as a way to connect traditional media and mobile, but it may not turn out to be a huge "advertising" revenue generator. What about app development? Branded apps are both marketing and advertising vehicles but app development, clearly a mobile marketing expenditure, is not "advertising."
I'm trying to illustrate that there are lots of variables and a host of developments to come in mobile. Mobile is analogous to the PC but distinct in important ways and will follow its own evoluationary path. Search, in the sense of a directional lookup, is going to be a prominent feature of the mobile user experience but it won't be limited to a search box and blue links on Google (think about QR codes as as both search and display). Lots of "searching" in mobile will be going on outside of traditional search engines -- and that behavior will be monetized in different ways: sponsorships, coupons, deals, display ads, video, as well as conventional text ads.