Earlier today we got a refreshed device forecast from IDC. The firm believes that Android's market share will peak this year globally at 61% and decline to 52.9% by 2016. It sees Apple basically maintaining its current market share, while the company is bullish on Windows Phones.
Reiterating the notion that Windows Phones will dramatically gain share, IDC says they will surpass the iPhone by 2016 and ascend to a 19.2% market share. Here's how IDC justifies that prediction:
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia's strength in key emerging markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in 2016, assuming Nokia's foothold in emerging markets is maintained.
Source: IDC, June 2012
The idea is that low-cost Windows Phones, made by Nokia, will do well in China, India and other developing markets. Yet so far there's really no indication that prediction will come to pass. Sales have been "mixed" at best. I have long believed that Nokia Windows Phones would enjoy modest success but not become the breakout product that both companies need.
Today ZDNet columnist Matthew Miller encouraged Microsoft to buy Nokia and pursue an Apple-like approach to the smartphone market. Indeed, Nokia as we know it today is quite unlikely to exist in 2016 let alone capture 20% of the smartphone market.