Projections for a Verizon iPhone & Comparing the G2/Ion

In one sense Apple is in a race against time, as well as competitors such as Android, BlackBerry, Palm and Windows Mobile. If it retains its exclusive deal with AT&T it maxes out its addressable market -- those AT&T subscribers willing to upgrade to the iPhone and those non AT&T subscribers willing to switch for the iPhone. Meanwhile those other competitors continue to improve their products and push more devices into the market. There's a point at which they become good enough or better in specific areas to preempt potential iPhone demand. 

Bernstein Research analysts have issued a note that argues that addressable market would expand dramatically (double) if Verizon were to get access to the iPhone or some similar Apple-made handset in the future. This is what I argued some time ago in less precise terms. However Apple has reaffirmed its near-term commitment to AT&T (but there are suggestions of talks between Verizon and Apple).

Since Google's developer conference I've been using the G2/Ion they gave away. It's a significant (hardware and software) improvement over the G1. Here's a preliminary mostly postive review from Wired.  

I'm not doing any systematic testing, rather just using it in my daily life. What I've found so far is that the virtual keyboard is considerably harder to use (for me) than the iPhone's. And the screen and Internet experience are not as "crisp" as on the iPhone. Still, in the absence of the iPhone it would be very impressive and probably the best handheld Internet device in the market. 

I would put the G2/Ion in the good enough category. And the Storm 2 will probably satisfy some of that iPhone envy (that the Storm did not) among Verizon users. Finally the Pre has already prevented me from switching to AT&T to get the iPhone. We'll see once I get my hands on one whether it keeps me there. 

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Related: ZDNet compares the Pre to the G1.