The smartphone segment is the only area of mobile hardware sales not contracting right now. That explains the recent financial performance of Apple and, to some degree, RIM vs. other OEMs.

But how many smartphones are there in the US? Our data reflect that the current ownership of smartphones is about 12% of the overall market. comScore shows something similar, although their numbers put it at about 10% - 11% depending on the base. 

Predicting the future of the mobile Internet and handsets has become harder because we're starting to see more devices and consumer options out there. For example, will some consumers opt for netbooks rather than smartphones? Will the Kindle become an Internet-access device? Will we see a range of interesting new Android-powered tablets or other MIDs that consumers use for mobile Internet access? 

The market is rapidly evolving and quite fluid right now.

One can easily imagine that within five years roughly 30% to 40% of the mobile subscriber market will be constituted by smartphones. That could grow larger or faster if lower priced devices (e.g., $99 iPhone) materialize and data plans become cheaper as well. 

As more people adopt smartphones and dataplans the mobile Internet grows -- ipso facto.  Conversely, smartphone sales could stall if a range of reasonably priced non-phone mobile Internet devices become widely available. 

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See also: Sprint may launch WiMax-enabled Android phone next year.