Developer Survey: RIM Is Dying, Android Interest Declines

Appcelerator released its Q3 developer survey. The quarterly survey this time polled more than 5,500 developers globally on their attitudes toward various platforms and future-trend predictions.

The survey result that's going to get most of the attention is the one that found 66% of developers believe "that it is 'likely to very likely' that a mobile-first social startup will disrupt the market for social applications on mobile devices and take market share from Facebook." Indeed, this describes Instagram before Facebook acquired it for roughly $1 billion. 

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Other top-level survey findings include the following: 

  • By 2015 developers "will be building mobile applications for more than smartphones and tablets: TVs, connected cars, game consoles, Google Glass, and foldable screens" 
  • Mobile developers are disappointed with nearly every aspect of HTML5 (vs. apps) 
  • Apple continued as the "top platform of choice for developers"
  • Developer interest in Android "declined for a fourth quarter in a row" and RIM interest declined to "an all-time low"

The survey also indicated that developers were interested in Windows Phone 8 smartphones but that they were taking a wait-and-see approach. Only when Windows Phones crossed relatively high penetration levels would developers turn their attention to the platform in earnest. However developers were more sanguine about the prospects for forthcoming Windows 8 tablets. 

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It's also interesting that despite sales developers don't seem very interested in the Kindle Fire. Perhaps that will change if the recently upgraded line of Kindle tablets sell well.

Finally it's curious that despite continuing market-share gains developer interest in Android continues to erode. This must be a reflection of the challenges of making money on the platform.