The Price Is Right: Cost as a Barrier and a Driver of Mobile Internet Adoption

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Mobile Voice’s Next Chapter

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AOL's MyMobile Application Coming Out of Beta

I first saw AOL's MyMobile demo'd at CTIA in 2007 and was impressed. The working beta version of the product however has not been quite as impressive in practice. There have been some glitches for me. Specifically each time I fired up the application it asked me to repeat the sign-in process, which is cumbersome. The application was also slow. But that's not uncommon with betas. However, now, according to an email I received:

The private Beta trial has been a success, so we are making MyMobile available to the general public on March 31st, 2008. At that time, anyone with a supported Windows Mobile device will be able to download the application by entering wap.aol.com/mymobile into their phone’s browser.

The MyMobile application is a richer version of AOL's WAP portal and includes AIM, MapQuest, AOL CityGuide, news, Moviefone, weather, directions and search/local search capabilities. The content modules, which are available via a carousel, can be added or removed. At the time of the demo, MyMobile was better than Yahoo!'s Go 2.0. However, Go 3.0 (including onePlace) has leapfrogged it in terms of functionality and personalization capabilities. Yet the new version of the MyMobile software appears to be an improvement over the private beta version in my limited testing so far.

Mobile represents an opportunity for AOL to gain new users. Indeed, AOL can reprise its role as "educator" of non-users and help initiate many into the world of mobile. Mobile applications, however, represent the smallest segment of the mobile market to date and will likely remain so in the future. Accordingly the AOL WAP site offers the greatest mobile reach for the company. However, AIM also offers SMS integration and functionality.

AOL also owns mobile ad network and platform Third Screen Media.

CIO Magazine - March 31, 2008

Excerpt from CIO:

The difference between Internet search and mobile search looks to be substantial. For starters, almost by definition, people who use their cell phones to search are probably on the go or will be soon, based on their search results. The two main categories of mobile search right now are those who want to buy something immediately, and those who are looking for a place, says Greg Sterling, who runs the local mobile practice at Opus Research in San Francisco.

From the article, "10 Things You Need to Know About Mobile Search," March 31, 2008, by Michael Fitzgerald, CIO.com

New York Times - March 31, 2008

Excerpt from New York Times:

"This is something that’s been needed for a while, but no one has been able to do it successfully," said Greg Sterling, of Sterling Marketplace Intelligence, an online consultancy. "With these new services, there are a lot of circumstances where it can work quite well for both the business and the consumer."

From the article, "Making Appointments for Doctor or Dinner," March 31, 2008, by Bob Tedeschi, New York Times

Voice Search's Identity Crisis: Connecting the Dots

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Grading Free DA: A Qualitative Analysis of the Major Free Directory Assistance Providers

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MediaPost - Feb. 6, 2008

Excerpt from MediaPost:

For now, most mobile users still rely on standard directory assistance because of its familiarity. But with customer satisfaction ratings for free alternatives on par with traditional directory help, Local Mobile Search, a unit of Opus Research, expects that to change.

"Traditional service providers, to the extent they continue to rely on user ignorance, will have to change their product offering because free 411 services will eventually cannibalize the pay services," said Greg Sterling, a senior analyst at Local Mobile Search, who authored the report on mobile directory assistance.

From the article, "Study: Free Mobile Directory Assistance To Overtake Paid", MediaPost, February 6, 2008 - registration required

The '411' on Mobile Directory Assistance: New Consumer Survey Findings

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Network World - Feb. 5, 2008

Excerpt from Network World:

But Funambol would have to convince operators that they'll make as much or more in advertising than in their monthly data subscriptions before they'll want to offer mobile e-mail for free. "Unless there was considerable potential revenue, which I think is doubtful but who knows... operators won't want to cannibalize their subscription model," said Greg Sterling, an analyst following mobile search and advertising as part of a joint venture between Sterling Market Research and Opus Research

From the article, "Funambol offers ad-supported mobile e-mail", Network World, February 5, 2008

Microsoft and Yahoo: Well-Positioned for Mobile Search

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Survey: Social Networking, Local in Demand on Mobile

U.K.-based consulting firm Webcredible released results of a survey of just over 1000 mobile phone users (I assume they were in the U.K.). The firm asked users what content/types of services they were most interested in "if speed and quality weren't an issue."

What the firm found was demand for access to the following capabilities and categories of information:

• Email -- 33%
• Social networks -- 25%
• Local information -- 20%
• Travel information -- 13%
• Online shopping -- 9%

The methodology and demographics of the users weren't disclosed so it's hard to evaluate the survey. Travel and local should be seen as part of the same overall content category. In that context it would be tied with "email" at the level of highest demand.

Nielsen mobile (U.S. adults) also recently found "local listings were the leading search objective in terms of users."

French iPhone Sales: Bien Sur!

Apparently iPhone sales in France, which were expected to be slower than the U.S., are going pretty well:

"We thought it would slow at the beginning of the year but we were wrong," [Didier Lombard, head of Orange parent France Telecom] told The Associated Press during a gathering at the Elyse Palace after a speech by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Lombard said that sales are going "very well," but declined to provide figures due to the blackout period ahead of the announcement of France Telecom's full year results Feb. 6.
Orange said Dec. 5 that it had sold 30,000 iPhones in the five days after it went on sale in France. Lombard had previously said he hopes to sell as many as 100,000 of the handsets by the end of 2007.

At MacWorld, Apple CEO Steve Jobs said that the iPhone had sold 4 million units in the U.S. since it went on sale in June 2007.

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Related: The iPhone's reach in the U.K. so far fall short of estimates: "The [Financial Times] says that between Apple, O2 and the Warehouse, only about 190,000 handsets were sold in the first two months against a target of 200,000."

Nokia Touts Local and Social Aspects of Mobile Search

At a mobile search conference in London, Jussi Pekka Partanen, who heads Nokia's mobile search development efforts, told attendees that Google-style search (based on page ranks) would be insufficient for the personal communications needs of mobile subscribers. Nokia is proving to be one of the biggest true believers in context-based search, including content that is stored on the device, itself. The vision also embraces user-generated content and peer-to-peer communications in a big way. That sounds like the formula for social, mobile search.

Yahoo! Does Display Ad Deal with T-Mobile in the U.K.

There was a time not terribly long ago when Yahoo! was described as slow or often having been outmaneuvered by its rivals in particular acquisition deals or business development. Not so in mobile.

Yahoo! is moving more quickly and aggressively than some of its rivals to lock up ad distribution (and mobile search) deals with carriers around the globe. Accordingly, Yahoo! is now in another deal with another carrier -- this time T-mobile in the U.K. for targeted mobile display ad distribution on its "Web 'n' Walk" service.

The company already has a relationship with Vodafone in the U.K. The top five U.K. mobile operators are Vodafone, O2 (which has the iPhone), Orange, T-mobile and Virgin.

We've forecasted that mobile ad revenues in the major countries of Western Europe (16) will reach $2.76 billion by 2012. Total mobile ad revenues for North American and Europe (as we've defined it) will reach $5.08 billion during that time frame.

Jupiter Survey: More Publishers Plan to Go Mobile

As reported in MediaPost, Jupiter just did a mobile survey of website publishers:

Some 40% of web site operators have launched mobile sites and another 22% plan to do so in the next year, according to a new JupiterResearch study . . . Still, the study found that only 29% of Web sites going mobile were developing the ability to provide user profile information to ad networks to monetize page views. Among advertisers, only 3% were placing display ads on mobile sites, and 4% on carrier portals.

Jupiter's mobile ad forecast (U.S,) is $825 million by 2012 (search and display). That stands in conservative contrast to our $2.3 billion (North America) forecast (which includes search, display, text and DA) during the same period.

While the mobile market may remain quite segmented for the foreseeable future (in order of usage: DA, text, WAP/browser-based, apps) it's clear that mobile advertising will ramp quickly in 2009 and 2010. Those that don't have mobile campaigns by 2009 will be seen as behind.

This year and next are about growing audiences to some perception of critical mass. However, there are already 40+ million WAP users today in the US, and the more highly qualified nature of mobile users (in most cases) makes them attractive targets for advertisers.

One question is how pervasive full HTML browsers will become, which blurs the distinction between the desktop and mobile Internets. Even so, the "desktop ads" viewed on a mobile HTML browser (Safari, Opera Mini) are not particularly effective.
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Related questions tied to mobile Internet growth and advertising include the phone's form factor (smart vs. conventional) and mobile Internet pricing. Many people in the U.S. simply don't have mobile Internet plans at all because: a) they don't perceive a need and b) it's another cost. The first issue (perceived need) will melt away as more users go mobile and the second issue may be affected by carrier competition. Right now, with Sprint, I only pay $15 monthly for unlimited 3G access.

iPhone Maps 'with Location' Added

I realize I've been writing too much about the iPhone recently. But Google and Apple are driving much of the U.S. wireless news right now. Yesterday, during MacWorld, which I didn't attend (Mike Blumenthal did), Apple CEO Steve Jobs announced market share figures for the iPhone. Jobs said that Apple sold 4 million iPhones in 200 days and that it now has a 19.5% share of the US smartphone market. Here's the market share breakdown as Jobs presented it:

• RIM/Blackberry: 39%
• iPhone: 19.5%
• Palm: 9.8%
• Motorola: 7.4%
• Nokia: 3.1%
• Other: 21.2%

What's more remarkable is that unlike these other hardware makers, Apple's iPhone is available from a single carrier. Presumably Windows Mobile is distributed throughout the list on Palm, Motorola and Other phones.

In addition to boasting about market share, Jobs also announced a number of upgrades to the iPhone but not a 3G iPhone as many had expected. Among those upgrades was "Maps with location":

Maps, one of the most popular and helpful applications on iPhone, has a new interface that is simpler and easier to use and adds incredible new features such as the ability to find your location automatically. With just the tapof a button, iPhone can now triangulate your position using nearby Wi-Fi base stations or cellular towers. You can use this as a starting or ending point for directions or to find local points of interest. The new hybrid map view combines map view and satellite view so you can see major street names overlaid on satellite imagery.

This is very much like Google's "My Location" functionality, recently introduced. Skyhook Wireless is behind Apple's "Maps with Location" capability. From a press release issued this morning by Skyhook:

Skyhook Wireless, provider of the Wi-Fi Positioning System (WPS), today announced Apple is using its technology for the new Wi-Fi location positioning feature in its Maps application on both iPhone and iPod touch. Using WPS, iPhone and iPod touch users can now locate themselves in the popular Maps application with the tap of one button.

"Apple sells the most innovative mobile products on the market today, and now iPhone and iPod touch include Skyhook's Wi-Fi positioning capabilities," said Ted Morgan, CEO of Skyhook Wireless. "We are very excited to be a part of these great Apple products."

By mapping known Wi-Fi signals throughout entire metropolitan areas, Skyhook has built a database of over 23 million Wi-Fi access points with their locations. The patented technology behind WPS leverages that database to provide location information. Skyhook's software-only system offers high accuracy indoors and the ability to make location more precise for users.

While location was not an essential missing piece from maps on the iPhone, it's a very nice to have feature. (It also aids ad targeting and other LBS.) All the iPhone upgrades are also available on the iPod Touch.

Meanwhile, JiWire announced ad-supported free WiFi access for iPhone and iPod Touch:

The option will be available at select Wi-Fi hotspots located in airports, hotels, cafes, and other desirable locations around the world. Major airports include Atlanta-Hartsfield, JFK and LaGuardia in New York and Chicago's O'Hare. Members of the JiWire Wi-Fi Advertising Network collectively operate more than 100,000 hotspots.

It will be interesting to see if the economics of ad-supported WiFi will allow the development of a national system for access. If so, there are numerous implications for the adoption non-phone mobile devices (e.g., the Touch) and for VoIP mobile calling on those devices.

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Here's a bit more on Skyhook and Apple, which has put the company (Skyhook) on the map (so to speak) for many people who hadn't heard of it.

Amdocs Introduces Mobile Search and Ads Platform

Directories infrastructure, billing and software provider Amdocs has launched a new Search and Digital Advertising unit that is offering, among other things, a unified mobile platform for search and advertising. According to the release:

The Amdocs Search and Digital Advertising solution addresses the business requirements of service providers and their business partners by incorporating capabilities for campaign management, inventory management, yield management, optimization and an executive dashboard with a full set of metrics. The solution also supports advertising campaigns across multiple channels and formats including search-based advertising, display, Short Message Service (SMS) and Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) and video.

This new offering also enables service providers to offer self-branded search capabilities. Amdocs' search technology offsets vague and ambiguous search queries to deliver highly accurate and relevant results that improve over time as the system acquires more knowledge about subscriber behavior. The search engine is fully integrated with personalization and ad matching for ad- sponsored search-based advertising. The search is processed in real-time along with contextual (area of interest and location) and behavioral information to serve precisely target advertising relevant to the values and lifestyle of the end user.

This appears basically to be a white label "solution" that puts the company on a collision course with JumpTap, Medio, Motricity, FAST (now Microsoft), Yahoo!, MobilePeople and MCN, which are all seeking carrier deals and distribution. The thing that appears different here is that it the Amdocs platform appears to be somewhat more comprehensive (e.g., text, video, etc.) in its distribution and targeting modalities.

Challenges/problems:

• Amdocs is entering a very competitive arena
• Who's going to sell the advertising?
• It's unclear how good the platform and its purported capabilities actually are
• If users go directly to Google, Yahoo!, MSN, etc. to get their search and content all this is less powerful. However, there's a "second bite at the apple" if the de facto mobile experience becomes like that offered the iPhone or the Opera Mini. Then Amdocs can "power" the individual mobile sites (e.g., yellow pages) and search/ads on those sites

Amdocs has lots of yellow pages clients and will be pushing this to them, which puts the company in most direct competition in the mobile space with MobilePeople arguably. Denmark-based MobilePeople has been working with yellow pages and newspaper publishers to build rich client applications and WAP search portals.

Superpages has become an "early adopter" of the Amdocs platform (online).